tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47662191495631540232024-03-21T22:28:19.329-07:00ME Synon BlogPete Northhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04172420184509249126noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-59057323002430188392016-07-09T05:42:00.000-07:002016-07-09T05:42:10.519-07:00Neither in nor out of the EU: stuck in the cat flap<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHq6ylkxYTl7EdCeahk8ougalUrK6HtMpPD_hkkJC9JG-PMR2_kiGn-OzXM7u4Rdn62S5Tofz_wRcxleResIkg47fbQ1psAaojEKmdxQ3pmYBfZoqIyqk0au-QRHu_84avkNip-RFDLYvL/s1600/cat+flap.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHq6ylkxYTl7EdCeahk8ougalUrK6HtMpPD_hkkJC9JG-PMR2_kiGn-OzXM7u4Rdn62S5Tofz_wRcxleResIkg47fbQ1psAaojEKmdxQ3pmYBfZoqIyqk0au-QRHu_84avkNip-RFDLYvL/s400/cat+flap.jpg" width="317" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This time last year, one of the leaders of the Leave
campaign asked me to brief him with ideas for a Brexit strategy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I started by saying, ‘Winning a Leave vote in the
referendum is not our objective. Our objective is to take the UK out of the EU.
Winning a Leave vote is merely part of our strategy to achieve that objective.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Point one after that: if the Leave vote won, Britain
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rapid exit will risk the reversal of a Leave vote.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I’d had too much experience of the Irish referendums to
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The only safe, quick way out was, of course, the
EEA-EFTA option as a half-way house. Richard North had long since spelt it out
in detail. During that meeting with the Leave campaign leader, I spelt it out
in brief.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The advice wasn’t taken, and now we are about to go
into prolonged turmoil which will end with a fudge of Britain half-in and
half-out of the EU – a position Lord Tebbit described a few months ago at a
Bruges Group meeting as neither inside the house nor outside the house, but ‘caught
in the cat-flap.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Those of us who support Brexit have not yet achieved
our objective. We’ve merely achieved the first part of our strategy.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This blog was just for the referendum. It ends today. Thanks
to those of you who have read and commented during these last two months.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile the real fight for Britain and its
independence starts now. The referendum was just the warm-up.</span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-47159942876160620882016-06-27T07:06:00.003-07:002016-06-27T07:06:52.984-07:00I nominate the chairman of our Brexit negotiations. If we ever have Brexit.....<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-UKIqDezaFIPBBI7jPp3mv4jGwkxz0rUFOPNsM7pXcc5nizJaxKHkkvmjaUhMBlC-369ZNth3FsEVN6PzQ-SwqO9Rhpp0W4NKOdgGqJHzPZ1gyE-82xj4gFdLBbAYYhN9lv2j3dLvk7s/s1600/mervyn+king.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx-UKIqDezaFIPBBI7jPp3mv4jGwkxz0rUFOPNsM7pXcc5nizJaxKHkkvmjaUhMBlC-369ZNth3FsEVN6PzQ-SwqO9Rhpp0W4NKOdgGqJHzPZ1gyE-82xj4gFdLBbAYYhN9lv2j3dLvk7s/s400/mervyn+king.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England,
was interviewed today on Radio 4’s the World at One. It was the most soothing
thing I’ve heard in this whole referendum dust up.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">King said fears on Brexit have been ‘overdone.’ The Remain
camp treated voters ‘like idiots.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As for the effects of Brexit, he said: ‘The
countries that may well suffer more are not the UK but the rest of the European
Union. Because what this will do is to re-enforce the impetus behind political
parties in Europe who would like to get out of the euro area.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘What this will do I think more than anything else <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is to create serious doubt about whether the
euro area is a likely successful long term project. That’s the thing that is
going to damage economies on the Continent.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In its present form the euro ‘clearly is
unsustainable.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The interview has left me thinking King might be the
man to chair the Brexit negotiations. That is, if we are to have Brexit
negotiations. The powers are forming to reverse the Leave vote, but that is for
another post.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is a link to the programme. King starts at 12.06.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h2vc6#play">http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h2vc6#play</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He started by saying the statement by the Chancellor
this morning, like the measured statement of the Prime Minister last Friday,
were in contrast ‘with the slightly hysterical tone of some of the arguments
that were put forward during the campaign.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘I think [voters] resisted this very strongly.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">People ‘didn’t want to be treated like fools. They
could have listened to a rational argument. And there’s no doubt that leaving
creates uncertainties. That was a powerful argument, but it didn’t help to exaggerate
that argument by turning what were inevitably very speculative arguments into
facts, £4,300 is the amount by which every household will be worse off…’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Are we heading for a recession? ‘We may, we may not.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The markets today—truth in Project Fear? ‘No I think Project
Fear went over the top. Sterling today, even after the fall, is roughly at the same
level as it was in the middle of 2013 at a level the Bank of England and the Treasury
then thought was necessary for the UK economy to rebalance … Sterling could not
be at the levels it reached on Thursday night at midnight when people were
speculating on the result, and hope to rebalance the UK economy. Some fall in
sterling was inevitable.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘I don't think people should be particularly worried,
markets move up, markets move down.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘We don't yet know where they will find their level
and the whole aspect of volatility is that there is a trial and error process
going on before markets discover what the right level of stock markets and
exchange rates actually are.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘What we need is a bit of calm now, there's no reason
for any of us to panic.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">King said ‘in 25 years' time we'll look back and say a
little bit, that at least in economic terms, maybe that was a bit of a fuss
about nothing.'</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The long term effects may be much smaller than either
side claimed.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">King stayed right out of the arguments while the referendum campaign was underway. That, and his sensible tone now, could make him the right man to
be chairman of the Brexit negotiations.</span></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-5897988721698803892016-06-25T09:03:00.000-07:002016-06-25T09:03:39.908-07:00Coup? Johnson, Cummings and Hannan, 'the Cat, the Rat and Lovel our Dog'<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbXd3gfSGJCqOt8VauAKnoeUBPXrd7uC6Ks75cFePkkbIYAJ0OFTo-WQCdn1eS3YlxHq3IhI-DRzEuIIYXSVbI0fW9oMAVDKq3MYFPADdZCqxpE1kqczxkUgU-fZyKnCjYAz6Gm9CyeKUM/s1600/boris+johnson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbXd3gfSGJCqOt8VauAKnoeUBPXrd7uC6Ks75cFePkkbIYAJ0OFTo-WQCdn1eS3YlxHq3IhI-DRzEuIIYXSVbI0fW9oMAVDKq3MYFPADdZCqxpE1kqczxkUgU-fZyKnCjYAz6Gm9CyeKUM/s400/boris+johnson.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A comment from Anglichan on my previous blog post
asks: ‘I wonder now who is actually going to lead us out. Is Boris Johnson the
only viable choice?’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For the moment, Boris Johnson looks like the
inevitable next prime minister. But that does not mean he will lead us out of
the EU. You have to remember who is coming in his wake: Dominic Cummings, the
campaign director of Vote Leave, and a man not known for either accuracy or
good manners. Or for any gut-level desire for Britain to leave the EU. He is just a kind of technocrat.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> For a taste of Cummings, here is how the Spectator wrote about
his appearance before the Commons treasury committee last April.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/">http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/04/watch-vote-leaves-dom-cummings-is-grilled-by-andrew-tyrie-this-sounds-like-aladdins-cave-to-me/</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Now the reason – or rather, one of several reasons –
his closeness to Johnson is a cause to worry is that his original strategy was
to run the referendum with this sales pitch to the voters: it is safe to vote Leave because Brussels will then come back with a better
offer on membership, and we could have a second referendum on the better offer.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I myself heard Cummings lay out this plan, so it’s no
rumour. Yes, he really was planning a campaign that would ask the voters to
vote Leave, on the guarantee that they wouldn’t actually leave.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I did point out that Ireland had run EU referendums
twice, and let’s just say it didn’t work out so well for them. Cummings – and to be
fair, the other three people at the meeting, all English – brushed this warning
aside with a superior ‘This is not Ireland.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which, given that the banking crisis was, and is,
still pretty fresh in my memory, all I could do was think of two phrases in response to that: ‘Too
big to fail’ and ‘This time it’s different.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Luckily, somebody talked Cummings down from that ledge
and the two-referendums strategy was not part of the Leave campaign.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It does however illustrate how far from the reality of
the EU Cummings can drift. He is therefore just the sort that could embrace the
idea of ‘associate membership’ which Dan Hannan, another Tory Leave ‘winner’,
was yet again suggesting on Radio 4 today. (See my previous blog on Hannan’s
first go at mentioning it yesterday. Once is a comment, two is a plan.)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Also, let me include this, nothing I want to be held
to, but an idea. Another plan being put about is that the new leader of the
Conservative party must call an election, then during the general election campaign present his plan for Brexit.
This is so he has ‘a mandate’ for the relationship he wants the UK to establish
with the EU.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This of course introduces the danger of the ‘associate
membership’ emerging from a Boris Johnson Number 10 as the plan.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But more,
think of this.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Everyone assumes that a Conservative party led by
Johnson (or, indeed, led by almost anyone) would win the election, and then
carry on with a Commons majority. That is because Jeremy Corbyn is leader of
the Labour party, and he is the most easily beaten Labour leader anyone could
image.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What if Labour get a lot more clever than one
suspects, and manage to parachute a far more attractive party leader in before
the election? If a Labour leader were able to form a coalition government with
the SNP and other anti-Brexit MPs, he could overturn the referendum result – and I am the first to admit that the
Constitution would allow the Commons to do just that. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Political dynamite, yes, but possible. Therefore, a general election would be a very
dangerous undertaking.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And while you are ruminating on that doom-ish
possibility, here is a small glimmer of light. Or at least, a glimmer of
humour, since one has to ask how it is the Economist has come so late to the
party.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is what they have written in response to the
Leave vote, on what the new prime minister should do now: ‘We believe that he
or she should opt for a Norwegian-style deal that gives full access to the
world’s biggest single market, but maintains the principle of the free movement
of people.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how-minimise-damage-britains-senseless-self-inflicted-blow-tragic-split">http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21701265-how-minimise-damage-britains-senseless-self-inflicted-blow-tragic-split</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Somewhere in the blog-o-sphere I can hear Richard
North saying, ‘Oh, do keep up.’</span></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-30754714240190454222016-06-24T04:44:00.000-07:002016-06-24T05:16:32.420-07:00Party today, but we are not safe yet<div class="MsoNormal">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-Bh4xQytiomWAWxZ8cY_7uO7wQ-je7jRYOvZas0fA_DTBu_UJKOcTwC9Kg3DRKZGj8k-PRm66LGYq0LVpKS5PNVnZUu2dz6oFsTBZsUaLRkECvn7p1kChpgLYi8zDptu11rw8LpDges9/s1600/snoopy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEik-Bh4xQytiomWAWxZ8cY_7uO7wQ-je7jRYOvZas0fA_DTBu_UJKOcTwC9Kg3DRKZGj8k-PRm66LGYq0LVpKS5PNVnZUu2dz6oFsTBZsUaLRkECvn7p1kChpgLYi8zDptu11rw8LpDges9/s320/snoopy.jpg" width="274" /></a></div>
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<br />
Even as I celebrate the Leave vote, my long experience in EU matters keeps this thought hovering in my mind: voting to leave is not the same thing as actually being out. There will be plenty of time in the next few years for the decision to be fudged.<br /><br /> And plenty of people willing to do it. Already today Daniel Hannan as listed Guy Verhoftstadt’s idea of ‘associate membership’ as one of the paths Britain could consider.<br /><br />Verhoftstadt is the former Belgian prime minister who is the head of the Liberal group in the European Parliament. He is also one of the most active euro-fanatics in Brussels. His idea of associate membership would keep Britain tied as a member of the EU, but with lesser powers.<br /><br />I expect that sort of thinking from Verhoftstadt. But for Hannan, who knows the Verhoftstadt euro-fanatic principles from his years at the European Parliament, even to suggest this different, second-class membership of the EU could be on a ‘possibles’ list shows muddled--and therefore dangerous -- thinking among Tory eurosceptics.<br /><br />But those are not arguments for today. Today is the moment for a happy dance. And I'm dancing it.</div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-17027303107000886722016-06-21T05:09:00.002-07:002016-06-21T05:15:52.915-07:00'Leap or no leap' on Thursday<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitjFoXuazpiVkDwpqtsW5uINomDSnJe8pmFWkmsPtjJJV8N6TrR7S97Qg-RvAlhvhA_f7p5xg1GmzQNs3W5Ss7hG0hGQXwuSE1blFVLsRr0oiQxHcvR2IF_syoXv_cG-nI9QKCQW-7Eb8S/s1600/hartford+journal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitjFoXuazpiVkDwpqtsW5uINomDSnJe8pmFWkmsPtjJJV8N6TrR7S97Qg-RvAlhvhA_f7p5xg1GmzQNs3W5Ss7hG0hGQXwuSE1blFVLsRr0oiQxHcvR2IF_syoXv_cG-nI9QKCQW-7Eb8S/s400/hartford+journal.jpg" width="227" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What we have coming up on Thursday is Britain’s
Hartford Convention moment.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Not that one person in a million in Britain has heard
of the Hartford Convention. That is no surprise, since in America the convention
– held in secret in Hartford, Connecticut, 1814 – is almost as unknown.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course it is. The narrative of official American
history since 1865 has been that the federal union is, and has been since the establishment
of the United States, indissoluble.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The problem for official historians – the ones the
American writer Gore Vidal used to call ‘the court historians’—is that the evidence
of the Hartford Convention shows it was not always so.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In late 1814, the New England States were fed-up with
what the War of 1812 against the British (known as ‘Mr Madison’s war,’ after
the then-President, James Madison) was doing to their trade.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That was their immediate grievance. Their long-term grievance
was over the balance of political power that gave the Southern States,
particularly Virginia, the richest of all the States, effective control of the
federal government.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Anyone familiar with the early power of Virginia would
not be surprised at the grievance: President James Madison was from Virginia,
as was his immediate predecessor as president, Thomas Jefferson. Four of the first
five US presidents were from Virginia, including of course Washington.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The New England delegates met in secret sessions at
the Hartford State House for three weeks to draft a formal protest against the
Federal Government’s continued involvement in the war, which allied the United
States with France against Great Britain.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cS67hY4qiSL73hal7QYM8ArUjES6zbLR8C6khmAh-LMBKXuFl7RhrZWOAnF1szeknuFBVmFPCT4XViAKO5wNNz7GhB4yCbj7TiL6F_QUKW2gcrcaRAmIUfOLNq8u4Fyv3EGqg-3nDOFl/s1600/hartford+state+house.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cS67hY4qiSL73hal7QYM8ArUjES6zbLR8C6khmAh-LMBKXuFl7RhrZWOAnF1szeknuFBVmFPCT4XViAKO5wNNz7GhB4yCbj7TiL6F_QUKW2gcrcaRAmIUfOLNq8u4Fyv3EGqg-3nDOFl/s400/hartford+state+house.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They planned to send a delegation to Washington to
present their demands, including a Constitutional amendment that would dilute
the Southern States’ power to declare war.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If the federal government would not consider their
demands, many of the delegates of the Hartford Convention were ready to call
for secession.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It was seen as the only way for the New England states
to break free of the dominance of the Southern States. The threat was included
in diplomatic-speak in the final paragraph of the official resolution to be
presented to the government: if the resolution should be unsuccessful ‘it will
in the opinion of this Convention be expedient for the Legislatures of the
several States to appoint Delegates to another Convention, to meet at Boston,
in the State of Massachusetts, on the third Thursday of June next with such
powers and instructions as the exigency of a crisis so momentous may require.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The momentous ‘crisis’ would be a decision for secession.
No one was in doubt that the New England states could secede from the Union.
The only question was whether they would.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An 1814 political cartoon titled ‘Leap or no leap’ illustrates
how the rest of the States viewed the convention. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPFluFsyvYhSB5a7uVie2Vu6Xu5XQCtKv_F2wRZ38AmlIb4tbrD2jg7FqSDgPwTSRXyPDYMBZhcKL69OOQTc2iUuHyI4ZX-r-dj7T-VD4vAlRJGDT7cz262xCyH_pKJVvnWiJtDHf08u8H/s1600/leap+or+no+leap.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="425" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPFluFsyvYhSB5a7uVie2Vu6Xu5XQCtKv_F2wRZ38AmlIb4tbrD2jg7FqSDgPwTSRXyPDYMBZhcKL69OOQTc2iUuHyI4ZX-r-dj7T-VD4vAlRJGDT7cz262xCyH_pKJVvnWiJtDHf08u8H/s640/leap+or+no+leap.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is how the US Library of Congress describes the cartoon.
It shows that the Hartford Convention delegates were viewed as wishing to
become British again:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The artist caricatures radical secessionist leader
Timothy Pickering and lampoons the inclinations toward secession by convention
members Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, alleging encouragement
from English King George III.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘In the centre, on a shore, kneels Timothy Pickering,
with hands clasped praying, "I, Strongly and most fervently pray for the
success of this great leap which will change my vulgar name into that of my
Lord of Essex. God save the King."’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘On a precipice above him, a man, possibly Harrison
Gray Otis, representing Massachusetts, pulls two others (Rhode Island and
Connecticut, possibly James Hillhouse) toward the edge.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Rhode Island: "Poor little I, what will become
of me? this leap is of a frightful size -- I sink into despondency."
Connecticut: "I cannot Brother Mass; let me pray and fast some time longer
-- little Rhode will jump the first." Massachusetts: "What a
dangerous leap!!! but we must jump Brother Conn."’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Across the water, on the right, sits George III with
arms stretched out toward the men on the cliff. He calls, "O'tis my Yankey
boys! jump in my fine fellows; plenty molasses and Codfish; plenty of goods to
Smuggle; Honours, titles and Nobility into the bargain."’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘On the left, below the cliff, is a medallion
inscribed with the names of Perry, McDonough, Hull, and other heroes of the War
of 1812 and decorated with a ribbon which reads, "This is the produce of
the land they wish to abandon."’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As it happened, while the New England delegation were traveling to Washington, word reached them of the overwhelming victory of
General Andrew Jackson against the British forces at the Battle of New Orleans,
which indicated the war could soon be over. </span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC5O1z2Sra2ysQEQmcSK2r2zkecvXixAL_zDFcwlUJGlrm9rysvRSBvh-T9YGbFZlkAj0TSFLCdFLQHRRGkwYcwtYjxhrSH2nFl0Dlbvv1JbICfELgMXc3RbUJQaPBBHGk8jOyXJXC9n68/s1600/battle+of+N+O.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC5O1z2Sra2ysQEQmcSK2r2zkecvXixAL_zDFcwlUJGlrm9rysvRSBvh-T9YGbFZlkAj0TSFLCdFLQHRRGkwYcwtYjxhrSH2nFl0Dlbvv1JbICfELgMXc3RbUJQaPBBHGk8jOyXJXC9n68/s400/battle+of+N+O.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Then on reaching Washington, they
learned that the Treaty of Ghent had been signed between U.S. and British
diplomats, ending the war.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Hartford Convention delegates returned home. Their
cause was dead in the water.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But their lesson lives on, and we will see it still
lives on come Thursday: Just because no one doubts the right of a sovereign
State to withdraw from a political and economic union today, doesn’t mean that
next year – or next decade – that right will still be respected.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In 1814, the New England states freely declined to exercise
their right to leave the Union. Some decades later, the Southern States chose
not to decline that right...and while what happened next is a story for another
day, the Hartford Convention remains a lesson for today.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-91006718953460724182016-06-18T03:58:00.000-07:002016-06-18T03:58:14.323-07:00On the way out? Juncker and his, ahem, 'health issues'<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFutkqqFFgwWrIRMqGQKQPwUMoNkyCWIAC_z_5qfsrgiGiVbUhHWK5idDu6wLIcqkoKcKlk74hOjSRu3_ibQM_EfW0Oo7zTg7_ShvXilN3sbXB-jnR1ATyiRiR2zQeNESHcdYmGfruy-ap/s1600/IMF+logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFutkqqFFgwWrIRMqGQKQPwUMoNkyCWIAC_z_5qfsrgiGiVbUhHWK5idDu6wLIcqkoKcKlk74hOjSRu3_ibQM_EfW0Oo7zTg7_ShvXilN3sbXB-jnR1ATyiRiR2zQeNESHcdYmGfruy-ap/s1600/IMF+logo.png" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Christine Lagarde and the IMF have decided to ignore
the truce on campaigning until next week. No one can be surprised. Their latest
warning is in the link below, if you can rouse any interest. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-make-families-poorer-within-one-year-93268kxdk">http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-will-make-families-poorer-within-one-year-93268kxdk</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I doubt the threats will have much effect. At this
point, people have already been scared into wanting to stay, or determined to
want to leave.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I will say nothing of the effects of the killing of Jo
Cox on any of it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead I will tell you about a piece on Jean-Claude
Junker, president of the European Commission, which was published in
Politico.eu on Thursday. For obvious reasons it was swept aside in the news
coverage of the day. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://www.politico.eu/article/the-time-of-jean-claude-juncker-troubles-european-commission-president-investment-plan-travel-meetings-scheduled/</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">You might first want to see the 2015 video, link
below, of Juncker at the European Council meeting in Latvia, giving the
appearance of someone who had had too much to drink. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5peUoYB9l1vlR6oJdf_hpGqe5H6mm3zSy3f3BH1TCBCtlCwWK2XNwQORh1ZB0n87GMky1zgs_upYitOizgHGXTKSHFpk13fQ90FB7X6qQSPXa9bTlk-QOIMrnBSKGON0DZK_V1lSgNNlb/s1600/juncker+strangling.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5peUoYB9l1vlR6oJdf_hpGqe5H6mm3zSy3f3BH1TCBCtlCwWK2XNwQORh1ZB0n87GMky1zgs_upYitOizgHGXTKSHFpk13fQ90FB7X6qQSPXa9bTlk-QOIMrnBSKGON0DZK_V1lSgNNlb/s1600/juncker+strangling.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The clip shows him
backslapping – or ‘bitch-slapping’ as the internet has it -- and hugging
various embarrassed politicians, then hugging the Hungarian prime minister and
calling him ‘Dictator.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU</a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFuCezn3qNQvEMenD21WAW5Fz3z7R7sLWKYEzIlUT8ZPObkTLmIs5KJVYPsa95_Tmp50Wmn8DzlqjjdJ4o2T8izZkOA9kaIov4Y5UuKFDevlm6GMZiBB_RcVVIwum7Xefw8okjYt52o7A-/s1600/juncker+tsipras.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFuCezn3qNQvEMenD21WAW5Fz3z7R7sLWKYEzIlUT8ZPObkTLmIs5KJVYPsa95_Tmp50Wmn8DzlqjjdJ4o2T8izZkOA9kaIov4Y5UuKFDevlm6GMZiBB_RcVVIwum7Xefw8okjYt52o7A-/s1600/juncker+tsipras.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">None of this was any surprise to those of us who
enjoyed the late night press conferences Juncker gave during the euro crisis.
He was head of the eurogroup. And while other eurocrats such as
then-Commissioner Olli Rehn gave answers as calculated as a Japanese robot, the
apparently well-oiled Juncker often said far more than any communications
officer would have advised. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVl8MOw019X7B5yLCy2VJvQDvha0tzmIvl5xfsh66kjlRdVQohR8t0h5xqfFtnnqPnOBmoJYtkjIFRa8HcJVfSye94HkZqr3X5jBt7uV4B3_rnLSjJup_gjO1_77XRQIli7pdaSeFs__NS/s1600/juncker+mouth+open.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVl8MOw019X7B5yLCy2VJvQDvha0tzmIvl5xfsh66kjlRdVQohR8t0h5xqfFtnnqPnOBmoJYtkjIFRa8HcJVfSye94HkZqr3X5jBt7uV4B3_rnLSjJup_gjO1_77XRQIli7pdaSeFs__NS/s320/juncker+mouth+open.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which is why this tearing down of Juncker’s reputation
in what is quickly turning into the EU house paper (the Brussels chief of
Politico is an ex-spokesman at the Commission) is significant.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Maybe the sober,
calculating lot at the top of the European Project have had enough of it, enough of the brandy-soaked joker stuff – sorry, the ‘personal health issues’
-- and also enough of the crisis pile-ups outside the EU institutions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Certainly the Politico headline would fit that plotline: ‘The
time of Juncker’s troubles: Political missteps, personal health issues, doubts
about effectiveness and rising Euroscepticism impair Commission chief’s
self-declared mission to save the EU.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Politco lists the areas in which Juncker is ‘grasping
for answers.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘On a range of fronts, from border fences to Brexit to
the economy, Juncker’s Commission has struggled to plough a path out of the
malaise. Economic priorities — from Juncker’s much-touted €315 billion
investment plan to a transatlantic free-trade pact — have yet to show
significant impact or have been derailed.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Interviews with more than 40 EU politicians,
diplomats and officials from countries across the EU — critics, supporters, and
members of Juncker’s inner circle — as well as an analysis of his travel and
meeting schedules, reveal a Commission president who is increasingly on the
sidelines.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘…The decline in Juncker’s standing over the past 19
months has been so precipitous that the debate in some national capitals has
shifted from what to do about it to whether it really even matters.’</span> <br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘“The truth is we don’t see him,” a senior diplomat
from a large EU country said. “People don’t complain here because he is not
indispensable to the everyday functioning of the EU. We sometimes don’t notice
his absence.”’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘…To be fair, the odds were stacked against the
longtime Luxembourg premier from the outset. He took over the Commission at a
time when Europe was still reeling from the trauma of the debt crisis. The
debate over German-inspired austerity for wayward economies had deepened a
north-south divide on the Continent.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Yet it was Juncker himself who promised to upend the
way things were done, to reinvigorate Europe. The man who earned the nickname
“Mr. Euro” for helping to steer the eurozone through the shoals of the debt
crisis vowed to use his magic touch on the EU. “I’m allergic to the division in
north and south, small and big, weak and strong,” he said at the time.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘What’s missing from the Juncker Commission, critics
say, is an overarching strategy. Political calculation and short-term tactics,
whether the issue is France’s deficit or refugees, drive the agenda. Rather than
fixing a north-south divide, his migration policies have deepened an east-west
one.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All in all, Juncker looks like a dead man walking.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which, if the UK fails to escape the EU, is at least
some consolation. What Britain does not need is an effective, active head of
the EU executive.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On the other hand, Berlin has not failed to grab the
chance to fill the executive power vacuum.</span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com93tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-74951519389238239552016-06-14T04:29:00.000-07:002016-06-14T04:29:05.468-07:00How a prime minister drowning in Brexit may yet turn to EEA-EFTA<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlsUNJBwfcPtbVmFtB_r_g2l0VuexxtNItxhCmKLqrX8FIWJJsLoaebToOvKWiOh3RE_sV-vpp5qTpRHoMdfcGRlU5JOkMp6o2ORoRALGydDHOG6w4nKC7cxM_er_ZRhu-E58qDT4MLI9/s1600/cameron+worried.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGlsUNJBwfcPtbVmFtB_r_g2l0VuexxtNItxhCmKLqrX8FIWJJsLoaebToOvKWiOh3RE_sV-vpp5qTpRHoMdfcGRlU5JOkMp6o2ORoRALGydDHOG6w4nKC7cxM_er_ZRhu-E58qDT4MLI9/s400/cameron+worried.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This could be a game changer: Richard North outlines today
in his EU Referendum blog the way the EEA-EFTA option would offer Britain the
chance to stay in the Single Market, yet control EU immigration.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If Britain goes for a Leave vote on the 23<sup>rd</sup>,
this becomes one very important piece of information. A panicked Cameron may
realise that since he has been ordered by the voters to take the UK out of the
EU, he must after all embrace the Norway Option he has denigrated throughout the
campaign.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That, or face chaos.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So this little-known but enticing power for Britain to
control immigration – yet stay in the calm waters of the Single Market – may suddenly
start looking like a political lifeboat for a drowning prime minister.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What the EEA-EFTA option offers Britain – while EU
membership does not – is control of immigration through a quota system.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is not speculation. There is precedent for it.
The details are in the link to eureferendum.com below, of how Article 112 of
the EEA Agreement and subsequent decisions has allowed Liechtenstein to control
the influx of EU migrants.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86102">http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86102</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As North points out, the arrangement is effectively
permanent.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Some of us who have been writing on this issue have
pointed to Article 112 in the past, and explained the powers this gives any EEA
member state who decides to use it. Just to remind, here is the text:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Article 112</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1.If serious economic, societal or environmental<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>difficulties<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>sectorial<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>or<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>regional<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>nature<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>liable<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>persist<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>are arising,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Contracting<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Party<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>may<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>unilaterally<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>take<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>appropriate<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>measures<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>under<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>conditions<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>procedures<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>laid down in Article 113.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">2. Such safeguard measures shall be restricted with
regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to
remedy the situation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Priority shall be
given to such measures as will least disturb the functioning of this Agreement.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">3. The safeguard measures shall apply with regard to
all Contracting Parties.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So, a contracting party ‘may unilaterally take
appropriate measures’ under procedures laid down in Article 113. Unfortunately
for the contracting parties who are members of the EU as well as members of the
EEA, the procedures say it is the European Commission who will take the action
for them – which is no kind of unilateral action at all. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Only Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway have the power
to act on their own initiative.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This power of initiating action of course covers more
powers than just the power to control immigration. It covers among other things
all Four Freedoms of the Single Market – the free movement of goods, capital,
services and people.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">About these Four Freedoms: what is notable here,
besides Liechtenstein’s proven ability to control immigration while still being
in the Single Market, is that Iceland, despite being bound by the EEA Agreement
to guarantee freedom of movement of capital, unilaterally put capital controls
in place in 2008 following the banking crisis (last year the Reykjavik
government announced plans for loosening the controls -- its economy has
recovered spectacularly).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iceland could stop the free movement of capital
because of Article 112 of the EEA Agreement and that key word, ‘unilaterally.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iceland has to report regularly to one of the joint
EU-EEA-EFTA committees about why it was persisting with capital controls, but
there was no doubt it has the right to suspend this ‘freedom.'</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2015 I asked an official well-placed to know these
things (he did not want to be identified) the following question: if Britain
joined EEA-EFTA, could it make the argument that the pressures caused by
migration on the NHS, schools, housing, transport and the rest amounted to a
crisis so free movement of people had to be suspended for some months?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He replied: ‘It's true, you could do it.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In short, the UK would have greater power to restrict
the four freedoms as an EEA-EFTA member than it has now as a member of the EU.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet remember this. No matter how much of an
improvement it would be for the UK to be in the EEA-EFTA than in the EU, it
should still only be used as a half-way house to full independence.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, Britain's position for securing a final agreement
on control of borders would be stronger when the UK is negotiating from outside
the EU, yet is still an EEA-EFTA member. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In that position, Britain could use
Article 112 to suspend free movement of people during the talks, yet still be a
member of the Single Market. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That would be an economically and politically comfortable place to
stay until a final deal were struck for a fully independent UK.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-57349540978950799252016-06-13T03:15:00.000-07:002016-06-13T03:15:43.510-07:00A pearl found in the mud: how one voice shines in a mucky debate<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s gone quiet, hasn’t it?</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I mean David Cameron’s warnings of Brexit doom have
been so relentless that they have become little more than white noise, the unnoticed
hum in the background, like an air conditioner or distant traffic.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic5fv9Je-Q19FYho0vyD7AJrXRpDW1MQEl56EsnwdjdCu-WAQL1lj1gQjOhJAijsnAOdLpD-D43K_aME8PbPdomBhkFuVOE9asW2BMSbOCI6DoGUIMhJJcqocgzhLyc7jB5L6NPm8JWVvd/s1600/airconditioner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic5fv9Je-Q19FYho0vyD7AJrXRpDW1MQEl56EsnwdjdCu-WAQL1lj1gQjOhJAijsnAOdLpD-D43K_aME8PbPdomBhkFuVOE9asW2BMSbOCI6DoGUIMhJJcqocgzhLyc7jB5L6NPm8JWVvd/s1600/airconditioner.jpg" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> And I mean as
well the official Leave campaign and their £350m fantasy and repeated (despite all evidence to the contrary)
insistence that Mercedes Benz and other German manufacturers and French wine
makers will keep open Single Market conditions with the UK.</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Hum, hum, hum, repeat, repeat, repeat, we’ve been hearing
the same noise so long now we just don’t hear it any more.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which may be why a single voice has struck such a
brilliant tone today. The Daily Telegraph had a comment piece by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the best brains in the business. Evans Pritchard is always
excellent. Today he moves into a new degree of brilliance.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/</a></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He begins: ‘With sadness and tortured by doubts, I
will cast my vote as an ordinary citizen for withdrawal from the European
Union.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Let there be no illusion about the trauma of Brexit.
Anybody who claims that Britain can lightly disengage after 43 years enmeshed
in EU affairs is a charlatan, or a dreamer, or has little contact with the
realities of global finance and geopolitics.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Stripped of distractions, it comes down to an
elemental choice: whether to restore the full self-government of this nation,
or to continue living under a higher supranational regime, ruled by a European
Council that we do not elect in any meaningful sense, and that the British
people can never remove, even when it persists in error.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘For some of us - and we do not take our cue from the
Leave campaign - it has nothing to do with payments into the EU budget.
Whatever the sum, it is economically trivial, worth unfettered access to a
giant market.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘We are deciding whether to be guided by a Commission
with quasi-executive powers that operates more like the priesthood of the 13th
Century papacy than a modern civil service; and whether to submit to a European
Court (ECJ) that claims sweeping supremacy, with no right of appeal.’</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi472Rq4uee2lzj-XRFwuTO98JwTxyNdCQeHUZEL1L0YGkjGy44xKKoIGgiWyznlLrxHsDO6gMuhMOLvbLfM-ZvoqpF0A7Bu_iHZM8iKN3kV7OySEEXD87fD9CM7Z_FMVsY9_J8RuMvq0RB/s1600/boniface.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi472Rq4uee2lzj-XRFwuTO98JwTxyNdCQeHUZEL1L0YGkjGy44xKKoIGgiWyznlLrxHsDO6gMuhMOLvbLfM-ZvoqpF0A7Bu_iHZM8iKN3kV7OySEEXD87fD9CM7Z_FMVsY9_J8RuMvq0RB/s320/boniface.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘It is whether you think the nation states of Europe
are the only authentic fora of democracy, be it in this country, or Sweden, or
the Netherlands, or France - where Nicholas Sarkozy has launched his
presidential bid with an invocation of King Clovis and 1,500 years of Frankish
unity.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Later he continues: ‘It is a quarter century since I
co-wrote the leader for this newspaper on the Maastricht summit. We warned that
Europe's elites were embarking on a reckless experiment, piling Mount Pelion
upon Mount Ossa with a vandal's disregard for the cohesion of their ancient
polities. We reluctantly supported John Major's strategy of compromise, hoping
that later events would "check the extremists and put the EC on a sane and
realistic path."’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘This did not happen, as Europe's Donald Tusk
confessed two weeks ago, rebuking the elites for seeking a “utopia without
nation states" and over-reaching on every front. “Obsessed with the idea
of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that the citizens of
Europe do not share our Euro-enthusiasm,” he said.’</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTrizcAetPsSf91l62wfWVPK6KNeOeVZtBQW6uZ9BK1Ci-KJdXsa0bWMCW8xdULywe6-GvhBvLMesCao4KkCipuWPqUWVNfh-zaC33MPxLFwCEnq6sQPJ94qebTwlWHo8AUlQZ-nstchUD/s1600/tusk.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTrizcAetPsSf91l62wfWVPK6KNeOeVZtBQW6uZ9BK1Ci-KJdXsa0bWMCW8xdULywe6-GvhBvLMesCao4KkCipuWPqUWVNfh-zaC33MPxLFwCEnq6sQPJ94qebTwlWHo8AUlQZ-nstchUD/s320/tusk.jpeg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘If there were more Tusks at the helm, one might still
give the EU Project the benefit of the doubt. Hard experience - and five years
at the coal face in Brussels - tells me others would seize triumphantly on a
British decision to remain, deeming it submission from fear. They would pocket
the vote. Besides, too much has happened that cannot be forgiven.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Among the things which cannot be forgiven is the euro
project: ‘Nobody has ever been held to account for the design faults and hubris
of the euro, or for the monetary and fiscal contraction that turned recession
into depression, and led to levels of youth unemployment across a large arc of
Europe that nobody would have thought possible or tolerable in a modern civilized
society. The only people ever blamed are the victims.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Evans-Pritchard identifies this as ‘the greatest economic
crime of modern times.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As for those who want to lull us into believing a
single euro-state will not now evolve: ‘You can equally argue that the high
watermark of EU integration has passed: the Project is in irreversible
decay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are a long way from the
triumphalism of the millennium, when the EU was replicating the structures of
the US federal government, with an EU intelligence cell and military staff in
Brussels led by nine generals, and plans for a Euro-army of 100,000 troops, 400
aircraft and 100 ships to project global power.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘You can argue too that the accession of thirteen new
countries since 2004 - mostly from Eastern Europe - has changed the chemistry
of the EU beyond recognition, making it ever less plausible to think of a
centralized, close-knit, political union. Yet retreat is not the declared
position of the Five Presidents' Report, the chief blueprint for where they
want the EU Project to go. Far from it.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘In any case, even if we do not go forward, we may not
go backwards either. By design is almost impossible by to repeal the 170,000
pages of the Acquis. Jean Monnet constructed the EU in such way that conquered
ground can never be ceded back, as if were the battleground of Verdun.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Being brilliant, Evans-Pritchard sees the wisdom of Flexit: ‘The
Leave campaign has offered no convincing plan for our future trading ties or
the viability of the City. It has ruled out a fall-back to the European
Economic Area, the "Norwegian" model that would preserve - if secured
- access to the EU customs union<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and
preserve the "passporting" rights of the City.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The EEA would be a temporary haven while we sorted
out our global trading ties, the first step of a gradual extraction. The
Leavers have not embraced this safe exit - or rather, less dangerous exit -
because it would mean abandoning all else that they have pledged so
promiscuously, chiefly the instant control of EU migrant flows.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And on Evans-Pritchard goes, saying more in some hundreds of words
than the entire official Leave campaign has ever said, and destroying any moral case for Remain. He is scarily good.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which means I have to pay him the highest compliment any
journalist can pay another: Damn, I wish I’d written that. </span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-6278264919198189402016-06-09T09:55:00.000-07:002016-06-09T15:38:12.083-07:00The French elite see their privileges endangered by Brexit<div class="MsoNormal">
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">C</span>all it choreographed, or call it a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">pas de deux</i>, but two of the French elite
are now making moves against a vote for Brexit. They have joined in Cross-Channel
Project Fear.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First, on Monday Pascal Lamy, the Frenchman who was director-general
of the World Trade Organisation from 2005-2013, started the warnings – or more
precisely, the threats – in an interview on Newsnight.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He warned how tough the EU countries would make it for
British trade if the UK voted for Brexit. He said Britain had nothing with
which to bargain if it tried to negotiate its own trade deals with the rest of
the world.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Before you consider the value – or motivation -- of
the threats, pause and consider who was doing the threatening.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Lamy is a former European Commissioner, former advisor
to Jacques Delors when Delors was economics and finance minister, and former
advisor to socialist Pierre Mauroy when Mauroy was prime minister.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Delors took Lamy with him to be his <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">chef de cabinet</i> when he was made
president of the European Commission in 1984.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">During this time, Lamy became known as the Beast of
Berlaymont, according to Jan-Derk Eppink, a Dutchman who was a top eurocrat at
the time, because of his habit of ordering around even the most important <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">fonctionnaires, </i>telling them ‘precisely
what to do – or else.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That attitude can hardly be surprising. It’s how they
breed ‘em at Science Po in Paris and at ÉNA, the two institutions from which
the top administrators of the French civil service and top political leaders
are drawn, and at which Lamy was educated.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(One reason, besides his tiny
stature and foreign name, that Nicolas Sarkozy is snarky is that he was not
educated at either Science Po or ÉNA, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">école
nationale d’administration</i>, merely the University of Paris at Nanterre,
which is okay for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">la grande bourgeoisie</i>
but not for the administrative <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">gratin.</i>)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unlike Sarko, this background moved Lamy straight in
to be one of the 5,000-member elite who run France. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
mentioned this elite just a few days ago in the Telegraph.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/07/france-shuns-europe-as-brexit-revolt-spreads/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a piece on how spreading euroscepticism is altering
the political geography of France, Evans-Pritchard says: ‘A clear majority is
opposed to “ever closer union” and wants powers returned to the French
parliament, a finding that sits badly with the insistence by President Francois
Hollande that “more Europe” is the answer to the EU’s woes.’ (Hollande is of
course another ÉNA graduate.)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Evans-Pritchard then quotes Professor Brigitte Granville,
a French economist at Queen Mary University of London: ‘It is a protest against
the elites. There are 5000 people in charge of everything in France. They are
all linked by school and marriage, and they are tight.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">How tight? Here is the other partner in this week’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">pas de deux, </i>Elisabeth Guigou. She
joined in Lamy's threats, reported in Politico.eu today. The Brussels-based journal
started its story with ‘a senior EU diplomat’ saying a painless Brexit ‘is
impossible if we want to keep the rest of the EU present.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.politico.eu/pro/france-plan-for-a-bloody-brexit-eu-referendum-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/">http://www.politico.eu/pro/france-plan-for-a-bloody-brexit-eu-referendum-consequences-europe-hollande-david-cameron/</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The diplomat said Paris will push to make sure consequences
of Brexit are felt ‘swiftly and severely to avoid emboldening anti-EU forces
elsewhere in the bloc.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Actually, you can bet that the ‘anti-EU forces’ Paris
is most worried about are not those elsewhere in the bloc, but the ones in
France: ‘The need to send a message is all the more pressing for the French political
elite,’ says Politico, ‘with the anti-EU National Front positioned to make a
strong showing in the country’s 2017 presidential election.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which is where Elisabeth Guigou starts in to join Lamy
in the Cross-Channel Project Fear.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLGONC30oA2KW1JVaTTgtTiG5ltdQtmNiiXx4j5dkcty_jE28dmXCzEKeBw9hG8LdRgSdlhYHRXd-UHy9CoGsQPOZAq3DngoncKGmKZnI_38BcyhS2IEt-IHGElswn8JcL93G298i5ePdw/s1600/guigou.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLGONC30oA2KW1JVaTTgtTiG5ltdQtmNiiXx4j5dkcty_jE28dmXCzEKeBw9hG8LdRgSdlhYHRXd-UHy9CoGsQPOZAq3DngoncKGmKZnI_38BcyhS2IEt-IHGElswn8JcL93G298i5ePdw/s320/guigou.jpg" width="280" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">She is one of that 5,000-strong elite whose
control of the political geography of France – and its privileges, its
appointments to highly-paid posts which are beyond democratic reach, its
offices in gilded Parisian <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">hotels
particuliers</i> which once housed the elite of the Bourbon regime, most of all
its network of powerful contracts -- <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is
under threat by the Eurosceptic forces.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If the Brexit virus spreads, Guigou and the other
4,999 like her are dead.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">She is the Socialist head of the foreign affairs
committee in the National Assembly and told Politico: ‘Our president was right when he said that
Brexit would have serious consequences…We will need to fight the centrifugal
[political] forces, to show that we can draw conclusions from Britain’s decision.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Britain will have to exit from all treaties with the
EU.’ she said, ‘I think that process should go as quickly as possible, and it
must not dominate the EU’s whole agenda.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Guigou reached her position as one of the 5,000, you
will not be surprised to hear, as a graduate of Science Po (this time at Aix)
and in Paris at ÉNA. She was minister for European Affairs during the push for
the Maastricht Treaty, then she was elected to the European Parliament. She was
then involved in negotiations for the Amsterdam treaty.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">She now also sits on the board of the Jacques Delors
foundation known as Notre Europe. And who is president emeritus of the
foundation and member of the board of trustees? Pascal Lamy, of course. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They are tight, this 5,000.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of which is one reason that the idea pushed by the
official Leave group that the EU would be keen to keep open easy trade between
a post-Brexit UK and the remaining bloc of 27 is wishful thinking; or at least,
Anglo-Saxon thinking.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And that is exactly how the French elite do not think.
More, it is exactly the kind of thinking which the French elite exist to suppress.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Sure, a quick, easy agreement for trade to go on much
as before after Brexit is what would be good for businesses and employment in
the EU. But the elite in Brussels and their separated-at-birth twins in Paris
are not interested in business or employment.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They are interested in keeping
intact the power structures on which they have built their lives and privileges.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which is why they intend to punish Britain if it
leaves. It is not about their revenge, it is about their own survival.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The demands they will make during the Article 50
negotiations will have nothing to do with justice or reason or good business. By
rejecting the EEA-EFTA option as a staging post out of the EU, the Leave
campaign have left Britain open to this kind of economic attack by the elites after Brexit.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The demands of the EU, driven by the French, will be framed
with just one purpose. That will be to frighten eurosceptic voters – the Danes,
the Dutch, the Finns, the Italians, and increasingly the French – to teach them
that the pain and punishment of leaving would be worse that the pain of staying.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PDSAvPzgDAp891pOymbDHWygMHpbrUFCL8RemRzc8M78PWRWuFHy9nM9oL6IFseCITcoctmz4uPz4ulvRChc_tJMyfk0xIl2ssIwXvO03Eb9qUZnMDZeZqhPjZBiXF_avcfC4wM8hKTQ/s1600/byng.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9PDSAvPzgDAp891pOymbDHWygMHpbrUFCL8RemRzc8M78PWRWuFHy9nM9oL6IFseCITcoctmz4uPz4ulvRChc_tJMyfk0xIl2ssIwXvO03Eb9qUZnMDZeZqhPjZBiXF_avcfC4wM8hKTQ/s400/byng.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And without the protection being in EEA-EFTA could provide, Britain will be bare-breasted before a firing squad.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If you doubt the French think like that, remember it
was a Frenchman, Voltaire, who created Candide. He put the fictional Candide in Portsmouth
harbour to witness the real execution of the British Admiral Byng.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Reason for the brutality against an Englishman? Voltaire understood. It was
just <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">pour encourager les autres.</i></span></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-2909079687597619102016-06-07T01:57:00.001-07:002016-06-07T03:37:32.104-07:00How Cameron and the Commons will overturn a Leave vote<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3dDhjLcaif6eNqXL69QlR4b-h3NSYZevkwgWM1TouX-YAiWtZlIBiscZzIZHxOc0LucO3A9Aqzmh47KRCahydDr70NaHkLcurk4SHVYKaHP9F33yQo-On8zlXy5v9wjaasNgADLUlDPlu/s1600/hotel+II.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="398" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg3dDhjLcaif6eNqXL69QlR4b-h3NSYZevkwgWM1TouX-YAiWtZlIBiscZzIZHxOc0LucO3A9Aqzmh47KRCahydDr70NaHkLcurk4SHVYKaHP9F33yQo-On8zlXy5v9wjaasNgADLUlDPlu/s400/hotel+II.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
One is an accident, two is a trend: moves are being made to ensure the UK stays tied to the EU even if a majority vote Leave in the referendum.<br />
<br />
First move is noted in the latest analysis today from veteran commentator Brian Reading. I do mean seriously veteran, he was an advisor to Edward Heath. <br />
<br />
Today Reading writes for the OMFIF – the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum: ‘Leave does not guarantee leave’ (Sorry, there is no link.)<br />
<br />
Reading calculates the vast difference between support for Remain in the Commons and in the Country. He concludes (my emphasis): ‘In the event of a pro-Brexit vote on 23 June, Cameron’s game plan must be, on the plausible assumption that his prime ministership survives, to pay lip-service to the result and start negotiating divorce terms without seeking parliamentary approval for a UK departure.’<br />
<br />
‘To do otherwise would split the Tories and lose the parliamentary vote. <br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Negotiations could
take two years or more. They would probably be onerous. The 2016 referendum
result would be deemed invalid because the public did not and could not know
the consequences.’</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Another
referendum would be called.’</b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
Second move is noted in today’s Daily Mail, with a story headlined ‘Pro-EU MPs plot guerrilla war to BLOCK Brexit from rules on immigration and trade even if voters decide to quit the EU.'<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3627618/Pro-EU-MPs-plot-guerilla-war-BLOCK-Brexit-rules-immigration-trade-voters-decide-quit-EU.html">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3627618/Pro-EU-MPs-plot-guerilla-war-BLOCK-Brexit-rules-immigration-trade-voters-decide-quit-EU.html</a><br />
<br />
‘Pro-EU MPs are plotting a rear guard action to keep Britain in the single market even if voters back Brexit on June 23, it was claimed today.’<br />
<br />
‘Whatever the result in 16 days time, the Commons will still have a huge majority of MPs who campaigned to keep Britain in the EU - around 454 to 147.’<br />
<br />
‘Some of them are plotting to claim that because Vote Leave has not spelt out an alternative deal for Britain's access to the single market there is no mandate for a change.’<br />
<br />
‘They would use this to justify voting against changes to the law necessary to complete a British exit from the EU and the single market.’<br />
<br />
Now, on first reading, you might think this plot would be an accidental backwards flip into the excellent EEA option.<br />
<br />
The problem is that you need only see which MPs are planning to ignore the referendum result to see nothing so decent would come out of it.<br />
<br />
Example: Labour MP Stephen Kinnock, a man whose family has been made millionaires on the EU gravy train. He says: 'If the British people voted to leave the EU that's one thing. But can we really say that they voted for the devastation and destruction of the entire exporting sector of our economy?<br />
<br />
'I don't think you can necessarily say that there's a democratic mandate for that.'<br />
<br />
Welcome, a little late, to the plot to ignore a Leave vote. I warned about this in 2013. In a speech to the Bruges Group, I said:<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It
is naive for any of you to think that if you get a vote to leave the EU in a
referendum, then that is the battle won. It is not. It is just the end of the
phony war. </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What
I am here to tell you today is that what was done to the Irish after they voted
No to the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 will be done to the British as well.</span></b></div>
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<br />
I will give you details now of how the Irish government and the EU elite worked together to overturn the democratic Irish vote against the Lisbon Treaty. What they did to the Irish, a Cameron Government and the EU elite will do to the British. Here is what to expect. If you want to get out of the EU, you’d better get ready with a strategy to overcome this. <br />
<br />
First, of course, to overturn a referendum result, there must be in place a national government willing to collaborate with the Brussels elite.<br />
<br />
David Cameron has in every way made it clear to the EU elite that he is willing to collaborate with them to over-turn an Out vote in a referendum. <br />
<br />
I mean he has done that quite openly. As some of you will recall, the prime minister admitted in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El Pais last April that he would not take Britain out of the EU just because a referendum result was a vote to get Out. <br />
<br />
I’ll remind you of the exchange. The reporter from El Pais asked Cameron, if in case of a victory in the referendum for the out vote: ‘Would you be willing to leave the Union?’ <br />
<br />
Cameron’s reply was: ‘I would not.’<br />
<br />
The interview was circulated at the European Commission. The interview was further confirmation to the eurocrats that the British prime minister is indeed one of them, and does not intend to take Britain out of the EU, no matter what result any referendum might give. <br />
<br />
Here, according to the technique already proved successful after the Irish referenda, is what will happen after a referendum under a Cameron government delivers an Out vote.<br />
<br />
Cameron will say the people have spoken, and now his government will respect them, will listen to them, will ‘understand’ the referendum result.<br />
<br />
A day later Cameron will adjust this phrase slightly to say that the Government must learn what the British really meant by the vote. Not that the Government must obey the vote, no, must understand the vote. <br />
<br />
I forecast it will happen no matter how large the margin, for certainly the rejection by the Irish of the Lisbon Treaty in the first referendum was undoubtedly healthy. In the first referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the Irish rejected the treaty by of 53.4% against 46.6% .</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet
even if you achieved a margin such as that with an Out vote, I’d say your prime
minister, following the EU-Irish pattern, will announce he must consider what
the vote ‘really means.’</span></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><br /></span></b></div>
And you can stand outside Downing Street all you want and scream, ‘What it means is that we want out of the EU!’ but a Cameron government will say only that they understand your ‘emotion.’ They will patronise you and then tell you that you think you mean it, but you don’t really. <br />
<br />
Meanwhile, a statement will come from the president of the European Commission saying the commission respects the democratic decision of the British people. And meanwhile the UK Perm Rep to the EU will be around at the commission explaining just how Downing Street and the Foreign Office will get the colleagues – because they are all colleagues in Brussels -- out of this one. <br />
<br />
Then after careful consideration – or mature reflection, as an Irish politician once put it -- Cameron will say he now understands what the people were saying by voting out: he will say they are angry that the EU has not been reformed: because even if you vote Out, a Cameron government will not let you out. <br />
<br />
After a vote to come out, Cameron will say he is confident the British don’t really understand what leaving the EU would do to them. <br />
<br />
If you are Irish, you know the rest. He will then wonder aloud if it wasn’t ‘really’ a protest vote, because – and here comes the cliché – referendum votes are rarely really about the question on the ballot paper. <br />
<br />
The Irish government – quislings is the least one can call them -- refused to accept that the people voted No because they understood exactly what the treaty contained. [The Dublin government rigged an opinion poll to demonstrate that at least one-third of the electorate had no idea what they were voting for.]<br />
<br />
While this fraud, this collaboration between the quislings in Dublin and the elite in Brussels continued, the people, the voters, stood by, powerless. As will you. <br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
British people can expect the same kind of fraud if they succeed in voting to
leave the EU. They will be patronized, and frightened, by government and EU
insistence that they did not know what they were doing. They will be told in
effect that the British voters are too dense, too uneducated about the EU, too
confused, too much under the influence of what the EU denounces as ‘dangerous
nationalism,’ to understand the implications of their own vote.</span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
Cameron will announce it is his duty to protect you from yourselves. He will say he ‘understands’ your No vote, understands what it ‘really’ means. The EU institutions will make assurances about this being a matter for the British alone. Then the Cameron government will identify – stand by for a taxpayer funded opinion poll, just like the Irish poll -- two or three allegedly key issues as the reasons Britain voted to get out.<br />
<br />
Brussels will reply with some statement which Cameron will accept as an assurance that these worries on these two or three key issues can be ‘addressed.’<br />
<br />
‘Addressed’ being of course a word of no particular meaning.<br />
<br />
Then it will be back to EU business as usual, Britain will still be in the EU, will still be strapped to this ever closer union, with no hope of another referendum, not in the lifetime of any referendum voter over the age of 30.<br />
<br />
Remember, Cameron has already admitted that even if the people vote out, he would not be willing to take Britain out of the EU.<br />
<br />
And no referendum result can force him to.<br />
<br />
A referendum cannot override a Commons vote. To have a referendum vote ignored, all that is necessary is for Labour opposition, the LibDems or what’s left of them, and the euro-loving wing of the Tories to vote with the Quisling Cameron to overturn the referendum vote.<br />
<br />
And there will be nothing any of you voters, and any of the MPs who want out of the EU, will be able to do about it.M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-12849010146658978732016-06-05T05:55:00.000-07:002016-06-05T09:38:10.368-07:00Australian immigration system is designed to increase population, yet Leave wants it<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> Sam Coates, deputy political editor of the Times, was
on the Sunday Politics today, telling us that the Remain campaign hadn’t reckoned
on the Leave side gaining traction with their policy of an Australian points
based immigration system. Coates counted it as a success for Leave, in what, he
said, Remain had thought would be ‘a policy free’ campaign.</span><br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yes, well, the Oz points-based policy has seemed to
push sentiment towards Leave during this last week. But right on cue, the
Remain camp has started to take Australia’s points-based immigration policy
apart. What was published today in the pro-Remain Mail on Sunday – details on
that in a moment -- will just be part of the push to discredit the Australian
system.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But then, the policy is an easy target. It is another
one of those ideas which the Leave side has adopted because they like the
sound-bite it makes. ‘Points-based’ sounds good, very non-racial,
non-discriminatory, very meritocratic.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Add ‘Australian’ and you’re there, because Australia
is one of those countries with which the British are happy to draw parallels.
Another one is Canada.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What it means when you garnish a policy with the word
Australian (or Canadian) is that the policy is comfortably Anglo-Saxon in style
but it isn’t American.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even, however, if America were to have a similar
policy (which in the case of immigration, it hasn’t) nobody in Britain would
want to call any policy an ‘American’ system.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Tacking the adjective ‘American’
onto a policy is likely to draw fire because, British critics will say, that
aligns the UK with Trump, the NRA, fundamentalist Christianity, a disastrous
Middle East policy a wall on the Rio Grande, neo-cons, McDonald’s hamburger
cuisine, etc. etc., whatever else the BBC and its friends hate and will attack
if you were to describe any policy as ‘American.’ </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Therefore, when any group of politicians is looking
for policies to borrow from abroad that will have an Anglo-Saxon flavour which
will appeal to the British, they will choose Australian immigration, Canadian
banking, New Zealand farming, Hong Kong financial services, Indian high-tech
dynamism, whatever you want from any country from the British imperial past
except America.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So this time the comforting garnish for an imported policy is ‘Australian.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even though the Australian points-based immigration policy
has been, by British measures, a disaster.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is yet another example of the Leave side
embracing a policy which they have been too arrogant or too lazy to research
properly. Now they have to face the story in the Mail on Sunday today which
runs the (over-heated, but as reporters always say, ‘I don’t write my headlines)
triple-deck blast: ‘The Australian Guantanamo: Migration control system
proposed for Britain which asylum seekers compare to brutal torture prison’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625537/The-Australian-Guantanamo-Migration-control-proposed-Britain-asylum-seekers-compare-brutal-torture-prison.html#ixzz4AhnIe5Tm">http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3625537/The-Australian-Guantanamo-Migration-control-proposed-Britain-asylum-seekers-compare-brutal-torture-prison.html#ixzz4AhnIe5Tm</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The story, filed from Brisbane, says: ‘An Australian
migration control system proposed for post-referendum Britain uses brutal
island refugee camps that horrify human rights groups and are compared by
asylum seekers to Guantanamo Bay….’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘It costs Australia a staggering £200,000 per refugee
per year to keep them on remote islands in Papua New Guinea, with detainees
offered payouts of £3,500 to give up their claims and return home.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Under the controversial policy, hundreds of migrants,
including political dissidents and war refugees, are flown to camps on Manus
and Nauru, islands thousands of miles off the Australian coast, where high
rates of disease, death and suicide have shocked aid workers.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘…The horrendous conditions have persuaded some
migrants to give up their claims and accept resettlement payouts to go home,
with some returning to war-torn Syria or Iraq.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Those payoffs pale by comparison to the staggering
£200,000 per refugee per year the Australian Refugee Council estimates it costs
to keep them in the leased Pacific island camps.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘By contrast, allowing them to stay in Australia while
their claims are determined would cost only £8,500 a year, the council claims.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Communications officers running the Leave campaign
should have realised that Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and the rest pushing the
Australian points-based system would have led to such stories. Clearly no one
in the party bothered with any research beyond the title of the policy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This negligence leaves the Leave campaign vulnerable
to a follow-up story such as: ‘How much of the spurious £350m on the side of
the Leave battle bus is going to go to paying to keep migrants off-shore on
(take your pick) the Isle of Wight, the Isle of Man, the Falkland Islands,
Diego Garcia?’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is not like the researchers at Leave had to do a
lot of digging to know this Oz idea was a bad one. In December 2014 Migration
Watch released an assessment which trashed the policy, and in a way that was a
lot less sensational and a lot more full of facts than the Mail on Sunday story:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/398">http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/press-release/398</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The report concludes that an Australian points-based
system would be unsuitable for the UK: ‘The Australian immigration system is
highly regarded because the Australians have achieved effective control of
their borders and they can also identify and accurately record those who arrive
and depart. Neither depend on their Points Based System (PBS).’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The Australian context could hardly be more
different. Many Australians believe that they have a strategic need to grow and
have the space to do so. Both major parties favour increased legal migration
and their PBS is a means to that end. (Public debate is mainly about how to
handle asylum seekers arriving by boat.)’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Furthermore, net immigration to Australia is
proportionately three times higher than ours as the Australian Government
pursue their strategy of population growth through immigration.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘In the UK, we face very different geographical and
political circumstances. This became apparent when the last Labour Government
attempted a version of a Points Based System. It led to chaos from which the
Home Office have been trying to recover for four years.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘One of the main problems was that it almost
eliminated the element of human judgement (and was intended to do so). In
practice, this turned out to be hopeless as the circumstances of each case are
much too varied and complex for a box ticking system to work.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Sure enough, the Australian system turned out, on
examination, to be very complex yet it covers only 60% of skilled work
migration and 15% of all migrants. It applies only to job seekers as employers
have a different route.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is bad enough the Leave side won’t do proper research
to identify the obvious problems with the Australian points-based system. What is
really worrying is that they won’t even bother to do proper Googling.</span></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-24466046411719013632016-06-03T03:56:00.001-07:002016-06-03T04:47:31.215-07:00Defiance is our last hope<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDc7tm9qunvarHmgFoKUbWDwGZ_X83ln1VSB0AgwldCPrbVLefk15Cm4XVqtBCWM30HqV0oPTXde0y4wV5QIjmhDyguTs77F67LZu3VKEidpWI9an2fCox7kjp6IWxlQIup4oaZ5PL7lKE/s1600/fist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDc7tm9qunvarHmgFoKUbWDwGZ_X83ln1VSB0AgwldCPrbVLefk15Cm4XVqtBCWM30HqV0oPTXde0y4wV5QIjmhDyguTs77F67LZu3VKEidpWI9an2fCox7kjp6IWxlQIup4oaZ5PL7lKE/s320/fist.png" width="225" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<br />
Reading accounts of how the Sky News studio audience apparently reacted to David Cameron yesterday – and if you haven’t seen the accounts, apparently the audience were hostile to the prime minister’s efforts to oil his way over concerns about remaining in the EU -- a memory stirred in the back on my mind.<br />
<br />
The memory that stirred was one of defiance. And it gave me hope.<br />
<br />
In 2001, I was one of the Irish voters who cast a ballot in the referendum on the EU’s Nice Treaty. This was the treaty that allowed the adjustment of EU institutions to accommodate the expansion of the union to include the eastern European states. <br />
<br />
There was no doubt, despite opposition by people like me, that the result of the referendum would be a Yes vote. After all, at that point there was no country in the EU that was more spaniel-like in its devotion to the European Project than Ireland. The government made it clear that to reject the treaty would be an act of shameful ingratitude for all the EU had done for us (let’s let that one pass for now), so obviously it would not happen.<br />
<br />
And yet feelings against the EU were rising, despite the entire Irish political establishment being in favour of the treaty. <br />
<br />
I hadn’t much hope of seeing it defeated, but then I became aware that many people in my part of rural North Cork were planning to leave their farms on referendum day and drive miles across country to a polling station just because they were determined to vote No<br />
<br />
On referendum day, I cast my vote. On the way out of the polling booth, I passed a man on his way in. We made eye contact, and what I saw in his eyes – and I assume what he saw in mine – was defiance. I began to realise that inside so many polling booths that day, thousands of Irish voters saw this referendum as a chance to strike back against being reduced by their own government to being the EU’s spaniel. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
I imagined thousands of voters marking their ballot paper ‘No’ and then making a punch in the air with a clenched fist. Which is how the Nice Treaty was defeated: by the defiance of men and women who voted No despite the complacency and arrogance of the government and the threats of disaster if they rejected the treaty.<br />
<br />
Of course, you know how the story ended. The Irish government went to Brussels and were handed ‘concessions’ – concessions even more useless that the ‘reforms’ Cameron pretends to have won from his own negotiations earlier this year. Then the Irish were forced to vote again. They were misled and frightened enough to vote Yes on October 19, 2002. <br />
<br />
To quote Franklin Delano Roosevelt in other circumstances, that is a date which will live in infamy.<br />
<br />
I tell you all that because of the defiance that the Sky News studio audience showed yesterday towards Cameron's slippery arguments for Remain – what even the Brussels establishment news website Politico called ‘stinging blows’ landed by the audience, leaving him ‘rattled by the amount of hostility.’<br />
<br />
The audience hit him on scaremongering, on immigration, on his waffling.<br />
<br />
It gave me hope that the defiance one saw in some of the audience is a vein of defiance that might run through far more British than the opinion polls show.<br />
<br />
Certainly the bumbling Leave campaign is doing nothing to encourage defiance in the voters. I can only hope a certain natural bloody-mindedness is in the British electorate across the UK, despite the strategic errors of the Westminster-village Leave campaign.<br />
<br />
Still, Politico did make one observation about Cameron’s performance that takes my hope away again: ‘The Remain campaign clearly believe Gove and Johnson have committed a major strategic error by calling for Britain to leave the single market, with Cameron returning to it again and again. “I keep going on about the single market, but it’s so important,” he said at one point, in a sentence that summed up his entire debate strategy.’<br />
<br />
Exactly. The only way for this government threat of economic disaster to be removed from the debate is for the Leave leaders to embrace the EEA option. But they won’t. The natural roar of defiance, which comes so naturally to the British people, will be betrayed. <br />
<br />
Yet again: lions led by donkeys.</div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-7159957319778994952016-06-01T06:29:00.000-07:002016-06-01T06:34:18.862-07:00Wrong again: the Leave campaign imagines Ireland controls its own border<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBPgaQH9TdogHjEwWW8Beid2yPPI4yJrnqloI-GiuofQI1Mx0Og42mVMgfLCBL49tiFXofDYx9T3R3468QJsij8qV_9mw-TeZtr2DLX55bHnCdxKlCbtWzBi_rvUosIvJ7T-EXGyduvrMg/s1600/border+II.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBPgaQH9TdogHjEwWW8Beid2yPPI4yJrnqloI-GiuofQI1Mx0Og42mVMgfLCBL49tiFXofDYx9T3R3468QJsij8qV_9mw-TeZtr2DLX55bHnCdxKlCbtWzBi_rvUosIvJ7T-EXGyduvrMg/s320/border+II.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The statement on immigration made yesterday by the Leave
campaign is taken apart over at the EU referendum blog: in particular, the
muddle-headedness of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Priti Patel and Gisela Stuart
on the Australian points system, and their disastrous exclusion of the EEA-EFTA
option. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I am going to write about a different area of the
statement, the part dealing with the relationship between a
post-Brexit UK and Ireland.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/restoring_public_trust_in_immigration_policy_a_points_based_non_discriminatory_immigration_system</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It offers another example of the superficial research
the Leave campaign put into framing their policies.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is what the Leave campaign leadership say in
their statement (and you may notice that these MPs are so locked into the
system of parliamentary elections that they cannot break free from the tone of
a party manifesto. Somewhere in their imaginations they are fighting an
election to form a government, not campaigning in a referendum to decide one
question. They keep saying ‘will,’ as in the Speech from the Throne, ‘My
Government will.’). </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The statement says: ‘There will be no change for Irish
citizens. The right of Irish citizens to enter, reside and work in the UK is
already enshrined in our law. This will be entirely unaffected by a vote to
leave on 23 June.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘As the Northern Ireland Secretary has made clear, the
common travel area that has existed since the creation of an independent Irish
state will not be affected. There will be no change to the border between
Northern Ireland and the Republic.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No account is taken in this Leave statement of the
obligations and restrictions which continued EU membership will impose on
Ireland and the management of its border.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This would mean another Brexit problem thrown up by
the Leave campaign’s refusal to support the EEA-EFTA option. They do not grasp
that, once the UK is out of the European Economic Area, its border with Ireland
is as ‘foreign’ as Russia’s border with Finland.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An independent Britain may be able to do what it wants
on its side of the border. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, the southern side of that border will be
controlled by the European Commission and EU law, not by the Dublin government.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Since 1995 the EU policy has been for ‘a shift towards
more direct operational support and the Europeanisation of border management
policy…</span> <span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Union therefore sets out to establish common standards with regard to controls
at its external borders and to gradually put in place an integrated system for
the management of those borders.’ </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Lisbon Treaty makes provision for this common
border management policy. That is why Ireland will have EU obligations and
restrictions on how it manages its border with the UK, no matter what kind of
free travel Dublin politicians want.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet Boris Johnson and the others imagine that, once
Britain leaves the EU, the border relations between the UK and Ireland can be
those of two independent states as implemented in 1925 with the Common Travel
Area (CTA).</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The CTA has not, despite what the Leave statement
says, ‘existed since the creation of an independent Irish state.’ It was
suspended during the Second World War (the picture above shows one of the wartime border posts) and was not reinstated until 1952. That
is 13 years when it was closed down and travel restrictions were in place
between the two countries.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">These controls were in addition to the later border
checks system in place during the years of the troubles in the North.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In short, there is precedent for shutting the thing
down.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">More, the basis of what free travel there was rested
on the acceptance of similar immigration policies by the two countries.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Indeed, the original CTA agreement was provided for in
UK legislation by deeming the Irish Free State to be part of the United Kingdom
for the purposes of immigration law.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If the UK leaves the EU, the distances between the
immigration laws of the two countries will be too far apart for a Common Travel
Area.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Because how would any post-Brexit British government
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who have been issued with Irish passports?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Or indeed which allows the free movement of any
migrant who has acquired a passport from any of the other remaining EU member
states and choses to travel via Dublin to the UK border?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Yet the Leave statement insists: ‘There will be no
change to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Leave proposes, Brussels disposes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-33348324291400933982016-05-30T11:15:00.001-07:002016-05-30T11:15:32.890-07:00Faction, blundering, degrading: Napoleon views the referendum campaign<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
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mso-style-priority:99;
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mso-para-margin-top:0cm;
mso-para-margin-right:0cm;
mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt;
mso-para-margin-left:0cm;
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mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNClb7W0UpUVKWvFp-I41tVfhg8FGidjM5bP_Yi_rjMZTG136-JEtfBYJkDE18eVMT3-k3ZlRsxJCuK1CMmMEF1dTFvFztVtT9iB4MhXn_GzdyKkq8x1U71BNSDBK6enW0zCXNfHXjI_Ma/s1600/napoleon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNClb7W0UpUVKWvFp-I41tVfhg8FGidjM5bP_Yi_rjMZTG136-JEtfBYJkDE18eVMT3-k3ZlRsxJCuK1CMmMEF1dTFvFztVtT9iB4MhXn_GzdyKkq8x1U71BNSDBK6enW0zCXNfHXjI_Ma/s400/napoleon.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I have been taking refuge from the low-grade arguments
of the referendum by reading Andrew Roberts’ book, ‘Napoleon the Great.’
Problem is, once you have the referendum on your mind, it turns up everywhere. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Try this, Napoleon speaking to a trusted confidant as
he positioned himself for the Brumaire coup against the Directory which brought
him to power in 1799:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The triumph of faction, parties, divisions, is the
fault of those in authority only…No people are bad under a good government,
just as no troops are bad under good generals…These men [the Directory] are bringing
down France to the level of their own blundering. They are degrading her, and
she is beginning to repudiate them.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For the division of the Leave movement into faction,
parties and division, blame the personal and financial ambitions of the leaders
of the designated Leave campaign, Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mix
that in with their determination to keep the designated Leave campaign ‘pure’
of UKIP, a policy which has done nothing except turn UKIP into a faction doing
little except whining ‘that’s not fair.’ </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Add also their antagonism towards Arron Banks
(absolutely reciprocated by Banks, who anyway would rather fight with Elliott
and Cummings than draw up a Brexit plan), and you have a campaign with no
coherent message and no plan at all to assure voters that there is a way Britain
can move smoothly out of 40 years of entanglement with the European Project.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On the Remain side, this referendum on how Britain
will be governed, by her people and ancient Constitution or by the EU, has degenerated
into nothing but a proxy fight for the next Tory leadership.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For the blundering, start with Boris Johnson and
Michael Gove and continue right down through Nigel Lawson and every other
leader of the designated Leave campaign. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On the Banks-Farage side, the
blundering starts with imagining a campaign can be won on little more than ‘We
want our country back’ and ‘Points based immigration system.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For degrading Britain, start with the Prime Minister
and work down through every Cabinet minister willing to lie that David Cameron
has delivered a ‘reformed’ EU which gives Britain a ‘special status’— that’s
what today’s Cameron five-point guarantee card claims, that Britain has a ‘special
status’ in the EU -- and that there is no way to leave the EU without national economic
collapse.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Which means under the rubric of degrading Britain, we
must also put the national news journalists who have reported that ‘guarantee’
today without noting – so we must assume they still haven’t figured it out –
that the ‘special status’ Cameron claims to have won in his negotiations
earlier this year has no legal standing at all.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That means the government can offer no such guarantee. The pledge is a fraud.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the February conclusions of the European Council,
which presented the inter-governmental deal agreed with Britain, officially the ‘new
settlement for the United Kingdom within the European Union,’ does not yet
exist, it depends on a future treaty change.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Until then – and there may be no
treaty change for years -- it means nothing. Even then, any single member state
can veto any new treaty. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Factions, division, blundering, degrading: there you
have it, the leaders of both sides of the referendum.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">On day, as France did, Britain will repudiate them
all. </span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-36299752255405982852016-05-28T06:46:00.000-07:002016-05-28T11:16:31.661-07:00Tyrie makes it official: Leave campaign led by knuckleheads<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7dpQZB3z6RjD4vBV5RENf-81Lv9-wSSftIoxm8vqCMgkZrAt2pf-hsIM_4aNsU6GWfmT7npyLqKHYUn7Jieifcnigl7MfSTkvhyphenhyphenC5IA7u0E9qKiC4OWKrCvXX-JG3kjxl6r7RBYgZyA-R/s1600/select+committee+sign.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7dpQZB3z6RjD4vBV5RENf-81Lv9-wSSftIoxm8vqCMgkZrAt2pf-hsIM_4aNsU6GWfmT7npyLqKHYUn7Jieifcnigl7MfSTkvhyphenhyphenC5IA7u0E9qKiC4OWKrCvXX-JG3kjxl6r7RBYgZyA-R/s400/select+committee+sign.jpg" width="400" /> </a></div>
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Both official sides in the referendum campaign have been pumping out lies and idiocies, we know that. But now Andrew Tyrie and his House of Commons Treasury Committee have made it official.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmtreasy/122/122.pdf">http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmtreasy/122/122.pdf</a><br /><br />In launching his committee’s report yesterday on the costs and benefits of EU membership, Tyrie was scathing in his assessment of the testimony he’d heard from the leaders of both official sides of the campaign: ‘A few grains of truth accompany the mountain of exaggeration and unqualified assertion.’<br /><br />‘The arms race of ever more lurid claims and counter-claims made by both the leave and remain sides is not just confusing the public. It is impoverishing political debate. Today is the first day of the main campaign. It needs to begin with an amnesty on misleading, and at times bogus, claims. The public are thoroughly fed up with them. The public are right.’<br /><br />
Not half as fed up with them as those of us who’ve been in this debate for years, pushing for the UK to reclaim its independence. On reading through the report and the transcripts of the witnesses, one is not so much angered at the ‘lurid claims’ of the Remain camp. We expected that.<br /><br />What is concerning is the testimony of the leaders of the official Leave EU group. Reading through the report and the transcripts of testimony, the question keeps arising: How the hell did we end up on the same side of the argument as these knuckleheads?<br /><br />Even in the basic rules of how to present and persuade, Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings failed before the committee. Start with the transcripts of the oral evidence by Elliott.<br /><br /><a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/treasury-committee/the-economic-and-financial-costs-and-benefits-of-uks-eu-membership/oral/33182.pdf">http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/treasury-committee/the-economic-and-financial-costs-and-benefits-of-uks-eu-membership/oral/33182.pdf</a><br /><br />You will see that his behaviour towards the committee was arrogant and ill-mannered. Which is why I say ‘knucklehead’: the committee was covered by press and broadcasting, and was a terrific platform to deliver newsworthy, crisp messages for reporters. <br /><br />Instead, Elliott ensured his appearance started with the message that he had to be dragged to the Commons committee by the chairman: ‘I think I should put it in the public domain,’ began Tyrie, ‘that the Committee was forced to summon you under a parliamentary order to get you here.’<br /><br />Tyrie said this was the first time he had ever felt the need to issue such a thing to get a witness to appear. At which point, Elliott should have given an unconditional apology and got on with answering questions from the committee. <br /><br />Instead he went on about how his ‘diary’ could not be ‘rescheduled.’ Then he started describing a trip to Switzerland and ‘a host of activities,’ and on into discussion (which goes on for pages and pages of the transcript) of with just whom at Leave EU Elliott had discussed his appearance before the committee.<br /><br />Finally, the chairman was forced to demand: ‘Do you accept that all of this – the mucking around of parliament that you have gone in for here – was a mistake?’<br />
<br />The only sane answer to that one would have been, ‘Yes, sir.’<br /><br />Instead Elliott – with a kind of patronising arrogance one usually associates with Le Roi Soleil – replied: ‘I regret it has dragged on longer than I would have hoped.’<br /><br />It was an appalling performance, especially since the point of the Leave campaign is supposed to be to return power to Parliament. Yet the head of the official Leave campaign treated a Commons committee with contempt.<br /><br />The contempt, and the arrogance, went on through Elliott’s testimony, in particular in his refusal to back down from the Leave campaign’s famously-flawed claim of £350m a week savings from Brexit.<br /><br />In the end, ‘the Committee found that Vote Leave's core campaign number – the idea that leaving the EU would give the country a £350m a week fiscal windfall to spend on hospitals and schools – is "highly misleading." The £350m a week, and the suggestion that this money can and should be spent on the NHS, decorates Vote Leave’s "battle bus". The Committee found that Vote Leave’s persistence with this claim is “deeply troubling".’<br /><br />Elliott’s appearance distilled every mistake the official Leave campaign is making. The campaign concentrates on economic arguments and projections which cannot be defended, while offering no plan for Brexit that would protect British trade and investment – by which I mean the EEA-EFTA option.<br /><br />The official Leave campaign rejected the idea of any plan – and left themselves wide open to the Cameron-Osborne lurid economic threats -- because they insisted that the SNP had a plan during the independence referendum, and the government tore the plan apart, therefore the smart thing would be to have no plan. <br /><br />When it was pointed out to Elliott and Cummings that the problem with the SNP plan was that it was a bad plan, easily torn apart, and the solution was instead to have a good plan, they just couldn’t grasp it. Here we see the result: like the management consultancy cliché has it, failure to plan is planning to fail.<br /><br />The testimony by Dominic Cummings was even worse.<br /><br /><a href="http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/treasury-committee/the-economic-and-financial-costs-and-benefits-of-uks-eu-membership/oral/32135.pdf">http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/treasury-committee/the-economic-and-financial-costs-and-benefits-of-uks-eu-membership/oral/32135.pdf</a><br /><br />Besides his inability to understand how Britain’s rebate works, he argues with the chairman in a patronising way, starting off one comment about movement of funds from the Treasury with: ‘When you are sitting in your slippers talking to Mrs Tyrie, looking at your bank statements…’<br /><br />Tyrie snapped back with a reminder that he used to work in the Treasury, and that Cummings’ explanation was just plain wrong. <br /><br />As so much of what Cummings said was wrong. Richard North over at EU referendum takes it apart in detail.<br /><br />All I will add is that yet again we have a Leave campaigner given a brilliant national platform on which he could sell a plan on how the British can leave the EU with confidence. Yet again the campaigner failed out of arrogance, intellectual laziness -- and bad manners -- to present any saleable case at all.<br /><br />In the introduction, we are warned: ‘This Report focuses exclusively on the economic consequences of EU membership and Brexit. For many, the case for staying in or leaving turns on more than economic logic’M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-28098998035968326262016-05-27T04:52:00.000-07:002016-05-27T04:52:28.267-07:00Former US treasury secretary on Brussels revenge: EU demands 'Old Testament justice'<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRklDTuKP0wPBxl8v3irYeeL8om3mvzb9owZu3F61NLt7BoQ4go-n0ORU_77cbADcTH1WMTXAi1MiD8kD6LjC8i9dYYR-2eUjQ01Yaovtzql-ADWdSjQru66lIOtrXwIsG-WCrZGCEl8Y/s1600/geithner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFRklDTuKP0wPBxl8v3irYeeL8om3mvzb9owZu3F61NLt7BoQ4go-n0ORU_77cbADcTH1WMTXAi1MiD8kD6LjC8i9dYYR-2eUjQ01Yaovtzql-ADWdSjQru66lIOtrXwIsG-WCrZGCEl8Y/s1600/geithner.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Financial Times has it right this morning: if
Britain votes for Brexit, what the British can expect is the most vindictive
treatment possible by the EU under the treaties.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So any Leave campaigner who persists in the idea that
trade-as-usual would be quickly re-established outside the Single Market because ‘the Germans want to
sell us their cars’ (or ‘the French will want to sell us their wine’ or
whatever variation of that they repeat yet again) is a Leave campaigner with no
knowledge of how Brussels operates.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The EU operates above the concerns of the prosperity of any single
member state or its citizens. It operates in its own interests. If that means ‘Old Testament
justice’ – see the former US treasury secretary, below, including the determination of EU finance ministers to force the collapse of the Italian government – for any member state which threatens The Project, so be
it.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First, here is what the FT says today:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/09668b3e-2357-11e6-9d4d-c11776a5124d.html#axzz49qwKR741</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘French officials are wary of Brexit contagion
spreading to other member states and the lift it would provide to anti-EU
insurgents like the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. They are determined to send
a tough and punitive message to show divorce will be costly for Britain.
“Playing down or minimising the consequences would put Europe at risk,” said
one senior French official. “The principle of consequences is very important —
to protect Europe.”’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Another leading European politician central to the
Plan B process said: “Making Brexit a success will be the end of the EU. It
cannot happen.”’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Exactly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And if you doubt that the EU would be vicious in its
dealings, remember Brussels has form.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I call your attention to what are known in Brussels as the Geithner Tapes. These are raw transcripts of the
conversations which Tim Geithner, US treasury secretary during the financial
crisis, had with his assistants while preparing his book, 'Stress Test:
Reflections on Financial Crises.'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The transcripts were reported by Peter Spiegel, until
recently the Brussels correspondent of the FT, in November 2014.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the 100 pages of transcripts, Spiegel calls particular
attention to Geithner’s recollections of a Group of Seven finance ministers’
meeting in Canada in February 2010, ‘just as panic over Greece’s restating of
its accounts was beginning to grip the bond market. In his book, Geithner
recalls there were calls for “Old Testament justice” at the meeting. But in the
transcripts, he’s a bit more explicit.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here is the transcript, as reported by Spiegel (the emphasis is my own):</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Geithner: I remember coming to the dinner and I’m
looking at my Blackberry. It was a fucking disaster in Europe. French bank
stocks were down 7 or 8 per cent. That was a big deal. For me it was like, you
know, you were having a classic complete carnage because of people [who] were
saying: crisis in Greece, who’s exposed to Greece?….’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘I said at that dinner, that meeting, you know,
because the Europeans came into that meeting basically saying: “<b>We’re going to
teach the Greeks a lesson.</b> They are really terrible. They lied to us. They suck
and they were profligate and took advantage of the whole basic thing and<b> we’re
going to crush them</b>,” was their basic attitude, all of them….’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘But the main thing is I remember saying to these
guys: “You can put your foot on the neck of those guys if that’s what you want
to do. But you’ve got to make sure that you send a countervailing signal of
reassurance to Europe and the world that you’re going to hold the thing
together and not let it go. [You’re] going to protect the rest of the place.” I
just made very clear to them right then. <b>You hear this blood-curdling moral
hazard-y stuff from them,</b> and I said: “Well, that’s fine. If you want to be
tough on them, that’s fine, but you have to make sure you counteract that with
a bit more credible reassurance that you’re going to not allow the crisis to
spread beyond Greece and that’s going to require, you’ve got to make sure
you’re putting enough care and effort into building that capacity to make that
commitment credible as you are to teaching the Greeks a lesson….”’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘Interviewer: I
mean was that, did you have this kind of foreboding like: oh my god, these guys
are just going to…?'</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Geithner: Yeah. I had like a definite, and of course
I, as I think I’ve said separately, I completely underweighted the possibility
they would flail around for three years. I thought it was just inconceivable to
me they would let it get as bad as they ultimately did. But the early premonitions
of that were in that initial debate. They were lied to by the Greeks. It was
embarrassing to them because the Greeks had ended up like borrowing all this
money and they were mad and angry and <b>they were like: “Definitely get out the
bats.” They just wanted to take a bat to them.</b> But in taking a bat to them,
they were feeding a fare that was in its early stages. There were a lot of dry
tinders.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Spiegel adds:</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Intriguingly, the transcript includes more than a
full page of redacted comments on what emerged as the most explosive eurozone
revelation in Geithner’s book: that EU leaders approached President Barack
Obama ahead of the November 2011 Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France, with a
plan to deny financial aid to Italy unless Silvio Berlusconi, then Italian
prime minister, resigned.’</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If Britain should vote for Brexit -- alas as unlikely as that now appears, given the ignorant arguments being made by most of the Leave campaign to leave the Single Market, too -- one needs to expect Brussels to 'get out the bats' to punish the UK in any way allowed by the treaties.</span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And no German car manufacturers or French wine producers will stop them.</span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-4449840799937851002016-05-25T03:59:00.000-07:002016-05-25T03:59:45.983-07:00The Referendum campaign: nobody gets out of here alive<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsjM3lBnTeqc6rAaz-HXWTHSWfJfiTSN3zdbyz6TIZO7xScfscvxA-QMHVtCjFDCAfKp6hdMJ7MhdYJRKL9o7mvUm8HadNQRO6D3fpNzGBDdahDbB7FCkKD5tu4kSntmPXcqxUUHnpCgPT/s1600/hamlet+end+1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsjM3lBnTeqc6rAaz-HXWTHSWfJfiTSN3zdbyz6TIZO7xScfscvxA-QMHVtCjFDCAfKp6hdMJ7MhdYJRKL9o7mvUm8HadNQRO6D3fpNzGBDdahDbB7FCkKD5tu4kSntmPXcqxUUHnpCgPT/s320/hamlet+end+1.jpg" width="203" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This referendum is going to end up like one of those
Elizabethan tragedies, with all the leading actors dead in a bloody heap at
centre stage. Nobody at the front of either campaign is going to come out of
this thing in any way except politically dead.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Boris Johnson has demonstrated too often and too publicly that his buffoonery is a cover for his intellectual
laziness.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">David Cameron has behaved in such a loathsome,
slippery way that even Remain Conservative must be repulsed by him. More, he
has shown cowardice in dodging debates. Voters have seen it all and won’t
forget any of it. Conservatives MPs will rush to get rid of Cameron as leader,
whatever the outcome on June 23.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">George Osborne has shown himself dishonest, always the
worst sin in a politician who is supposed to be managing the country’s money.
He has tainted the Treasury by manoeuvring it to publish a series of
politically-skewed scare reports.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Michael Gove has proved intellectually thin in his arguments and has already retreated from the front line
of the fight to Leave. That marks him as an unreliable ally – not, in short,
the sort of man with whom you’d go into the jungle. Or into any future fight.</span></div>
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She won’t be back.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Iain Duncan Smith offers nothing but agonised outrage
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impotent politician.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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working now.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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word, because it gave the Daily Mail political correspondent a peg to add: ‘Last
night it emerged that Mr Farage's Leave.EU group published the personal mobile
numbers of officials in the rival Vote Leave campaign in an extraordinary
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</span></div>
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with Nigel Farage, received a threatening telephone call from within the party asking
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to keep their heads down and wait for the Conservatives to slaughter each
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Napoleon Bonaparte was promoted to the rank of brigadier general at the age of
26 only because most of the officer class was either in exile or executed by the
Terror. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For the next Conservative leaders, one needs to
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<br /></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-29265869085228019632016-05-23T04:51:00.002-07:002016-05-23T04:51:51.568-07:00Tory minister in another Leave campaign car crash interview<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbYEHpfNJUNMvyIo9ZbjMfH3AkY1vutqnJRCPYEZUw5fpMY3nn-23PzYo-X7kNuHkpwDp2FxKWpxMiEQ_RKKEn-cv-wQOSLxoLgKN2h-SYt9HrvVIzVvZ_9JQvax4kGEzzyw4bfH-lMOMO/s1600/car+crash.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbYEHpfNJUNMvyIo9ZbjMfH3AkY1vutqnJRCPYEZUw5fpMY3nn-23PzYo-X7kNuHkpwDp2FxKWpxMiEQ_RKKEn-cv-wQOSLxoLgKN2h-SYt9HrvVIzVvZ_9JQvax4kGEzzyw4bfH-lMOMO/s320/car+crash.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It’s a target-right topic field today.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I can start with Penny Mordaunt, the armed forces
minister. In arguing on the Andrew Marr show yesterday for the UK to leave the
EU, she insisted three times that Britain does not have a veto over Turkey
joining the EU. She said this referendum was the British people’s last chance
to ‘have a say on this.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And it really didn’t sound like a lie, it sounded even
worse: like ignorance.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">After her first mistake, which, given the lack of
fluency in her interview up to that point, Marr could have put down to nervous
confusion, he suggested to her she’d got that wrong-- he corrected her, and he
was right: ‘The British government does have a veto on Turkey joining, so we
don't have to let them join.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But Mordaunt kept digging herself further into the
hole: ‘No, it doesn't. We are not going to be able to have a say.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A liar would have tried to oil her way out of the lie,
once she was caught. Mordaunt didn’t because she wasn’t lying. She really
thought she was right when she insisted Britain had no veto over the accession
of new member states.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Richard North has the full exchange over on EU
Referendum. He places Mordaunt’s ignorance in the list of other ignorant
statements coming out of the Leave campaign.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But I want to touch on another mistake the minister
made.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And, as in so many of these Leave campaign car-crash mistakes,
right up until the last minute the politician could have saved it, could have
swerved out of that death curve, straightened up her facts and zoomed over the
finish line.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But Mordaunt didn’t.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The correct answer to Marr’s point that ‘the British
government’ – like every other member state – ‘does have a veto on Turkey
joining’ was to say: ‘Our veto over Turkey’s accession to the EU does exist in
theory, Andrew, but the United States will never allow Britain to use it.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘Therefore’ – and here is where Mordaunt could have
spoken her next line with accuracy instead of ignorance – ‘we are not going to
be able to have a say.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United States has been determined to tie Turkey to
Europe—for which read the American-led Western military alliance – since the
end of the Second World War. The US poured millions of dollars into Turkey in
the Marshall Plan. There was the 1948 Cold War extension of the Truman Doctrine
to guarantee the security of Turkey. America ensured Turkey’s place in Nato in
1952.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But the US developed a belt-and-braces policy on tying
Turkey to the American-led West: in 1963 Asia Minor was also to be put on the
road to membership of what was then the European Economic Community. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Note the timing: in 1961, the US deployed Jupiter
medium-range ballistic missiles in Turkey, on the southwest flank of the USSR. In
1962, the Soviet Union retaliated by putting medium and intermediate range ballistic
missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from Florida.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The crisis was resolved when both countries agreed to
withdraw their missiles. The following year, Turkey became an associate member
of the EEC.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The importance of Turkey to the US military strategy has
not changed over the intervening half-century. President Obama, to whom David
Cameron thinks Britain should listen in the matter of the EU, told an EU-US
summit in Prague in 2009 that pushing forward with Turkish membership would ‘ensure
we continue to anchor Turkey firmly in Europe.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Turkey knows just how much America wants it in the EU,
and it has leveraged this power before.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In 2009 Turkey opposed Anders Fogh Rasmussen as the
new secretary-general of Nato. Ankara only allowed Rasmussen to go forward once
the EU agreed to re-open two areas of negotiation on EU accession
that had been frozen.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Turkey plays for Turkey, it doesn’t play for the team.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If Turkey's path to EU membership – guaranteed and
encouraged by Britain more than any other EU country, including by David Cameron up
until a few months ago when the issue of accession became tangled up in the
referendum campaign – is vetoed by Britain, President Erdogan need only
announce that, since clearly his country is not considered good enough to be a
European country, he will withdraw from the European end of the North Atlantic
alliance.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He will, in short, announce that Turkey is withdrawing
from Nato.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ten seconds after Erdogan has issued the threat, the
White House will be making it clear to Number 10, whoever is prime minister then,
that the British must withdraw their veto.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If instead it is one of the Eastern European countries such as
Poland which vetoes Turkish membership, the White House will tell the Eastern
European countries that the American troops newly moved to forward Nato
positions will be withdrawn and Poland and its anti-Turkish Eastern European friends
can deal with Putin on their own.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And such American pressure would go on, putting the screws
on any EU member state that might veto Turkish accession. </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The end result is this: every EU member has a veto
over Turkish accession and no EU member state is able to use it.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mordaunt should have said that, because in her
ignorance she stumbled onto the truth: this referendum will indeed be the last
time the British have the chance to have a say on being in a political and
economic union with Turkey.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But Mordaunt didn’t say that. Just as she was too
ignorant to know when she was wrong, she was too ignorant to know when she was
right.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-4898549840909220092016-05-21T04:39:00.002-07:002016-05-21T05:03:13.706-07:00Death of a Salesman<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The picture is not so much a news shot as an epitaph.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Here we have Nigel Farage, one of the best media
performers in British politics, one of the most startling British party leaders,
engaged in a media event over which hovers an aura of political death. And
Farage doesn’t even appear to realise it.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">First – and this is the smaller point, I will get to
the bigger point in a moment -- you have to wonder how any press officer
arranged for his party leader to launch anything, much less a ‘campaign battle
bus,’ like this; to launch it alone, with no supporters, with no crowd, the open-top
bus isolated in a deserted London square except for a few photographers on hand
to record the emptiness.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The top of the bus should have been crowded with every
UKIP MEP, local councillor and party official the press officer could have corralled,
all of them looking happy, confident and cheering.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Every other space on the bus should have been packed
out with members of the youth wing of UKIP. London party activists should have
been placed so they crowded the bus at street level. There should have been a
band playing marching tunes for the 30 minutes before the launch to draw in
many curious passers-by from busier nearby streets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is basic press officer stuff.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Then when the party leader appeared and climbed to the
top of the bus to join the cheering crowd, that would have been a picture that
told a story of campaign life and vigour.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead the UKIP leader had a crowd turnout that
failed to match the numbers at a pauper’s funeral. And the national press photographers
were there to record the sad little disaster.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But this, as I said, is the smaller point. It is however
indicative of the larger problem which is the refusal of most of the Leave campaign
– in this case, the UKIP part of the Leave campaign – to grasp the difference
between holding onto their base vote and persuading the undecided voters to
support Leave.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In other words, they refuse to plan for a referendum
instead of a general election. Or, in truth, to plan at all.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In fact, the isolation of Farage on the bus, had he
realised the disaster in which he was participating, could have been turned
around, even at the last moment.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It was an opportunity to make a strong, simple
statement of policy, undistracted by anything else going on, that would have
been picked up by the waiting reporters.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All that was needed was an adherence to basic press
relations, even simpler than knowing how to pack an open-topped bus: Farage only
had to decide the message for the day. A message is a one-sentence statement of
about 30 words.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The message had to include two things: one of Farage’s
most important points, and one of his target-audience’s most important points.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In this case, and in every case from here to June 23,
that target-audience is the block of undecided voters. It is not UKIP fans. The
campaign already knows how they are going to vote.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is simple stuff. I’ve been a journalist all my
working life, and this is exactly what any reporter expects of hear if he is
covering a professional political launch of any kind: a message.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The message would have been the headline.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">An interview itself, however brief, would have
included three talking points. Experienced press officers know to keep their
politicians to three points only: “Two is a pair, four is a list, boss. The voter’s
brain holds three.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And the points would have been worked out weeks
before, and repeated and repeated, so that the essence of the position is
unmissable. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As I say, basic stuff. But in the period before the
last general election, I came across this comment from a voter, reported in the
Financial Times: ‘I look at UKIP policies and I don’t know what on earth they stand
for.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Today that could accurately be changed to: ‘I look at
UKIP policies and I don’t see how they plan to take the UK safely out of both
the EU and the Single Market.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Instead of a three-point statement of how UKIP plans
to do exactly that, this is what Nigel Farage fed to the waiting reporters as
to his plan for the national tour in the bus:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘This is not stage-managed, we are just going to roll
up, appear in towns and cities, meet a lot of people and do our stuff.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This ‘plan’ has as much failure written across it as
the best man who decides he doesn’t have to write his speech, he will just
leave it for the spirit (and the alcohol) to move him to say something clever about
the groom when the moment comes: ‘I’ll just do my stuff.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Beyond that confirmation of not bothering to work out
tour tactics, all the UKIP leader offered was a cutesy comment about
alcohol on the bus: ‘I’ve got the best drinks cabinet anywhere in the county.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Then he promised his bus would be ‘a heap more fun’
that the other Leave campaign bus being used by Boris Johnson.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Journalism rule number one is that a reporter has to
file at least one quote from an event. What quotes did Farage hand the
reporters? Those two lines.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">And how many undecided voters would be swayed to
consider voting Leave because of those comments? Exactly none. Indeed, the sway
could go the other way (‘A politician stuck talking about drink wants us to
trust him to lead us out of the Single Market’)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">UKIP needs to drop the drink jokes. It just looks
tired. It is sways no undecided voters.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This bus launch was as much a wasted opportunity as
Boris Johnson’s damaging vanity performance earlier in the week, in which – in the
midst of a speech on the referendum that had some unusually meaty comments,
well worth quoting – he started to sing Beethoven’s Ode to Joy in German.</span></div>
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former journalist. He must have known – it is impossible that he did not know
-- that the reporters and broadcaster editors would go for the German singing
and not the meat of his argument. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a 15-second evening news clip, there would be no
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Farage is doing the same thing with his tired comments
on drink and vague cry of ‘We want our country back.’ Yes, we know we want our
country back. But explaining how to get from here to there takes some brain
work. It takes the formation of strategy. Above all, it takes some prep.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Neither seems to grasp the difference between standing
for election with their name on the ballot (‘Oh, look, it’s that jolly good
fellow Johnson/Farage. I do like him!’) rather than trying to give confidence
to men and women that a decision to vote Leave will be safe for their jobs and
businesses, and better for their futures.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In between the German singing and the drink jokes,
neither part of the Leave campaign is giving a clear explanation of how British
business can get from here to independence without upheaval. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Neither is giving a clear outline – a clear warning --
as a repeated, and repeated message, of the plans the EU is making for the further rapid evolution of the Eurozone into
a centralised state with a near-helpless UK lashed alongside.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Undecided voters aren’t hearing any of that from Boris
Johnson. But then, no one is really sure his really wants Brexit anyway.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But they aren’t hearing it from Nigel Farage, either.
He used to be a great salesman. The opinion polls tell us that, these days,
Willie Loman’s best days are behind him.</span></div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-62512033666860138062016-05-19T06:44:00.002-07:002016-05-19T06:44:20.922-07:00The referendum polls are even worse for Leave than they look <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisG3SPGRe95aouYRaHSNXBX9QAWBLJM43_8WtHU2obZ7StW5AjYXT0TuhoJCEtyguRbCzeWYP3P6xEjKHCJNjvPuEaMotItYrmRGNgmnyz0lMDSIw3Yix8INYRdg_fEpD-nedsOP10QrJt/s1600/lsr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisG3SPGRe95aouYRaHSNXBX9QAWBLJM43_8WtHU2obZ7StW5AjYXT0TuhoJCEtyguRbCzeWYP3P6xEjKHCJNjvPuEaMotItYrmRGNgmnyz0lMDSIw3Yix8INYRdg_fEpD-nedsOP10QrJt/s1600/lsr.png" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Those EU referendum opinion polls: today the economic analysts
at Lombard Street Research examine the data in a daily note. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I can’t give you a link, but here is the headline
I’d put it: ‘The undecideds mean Brexit wipe-out.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">LSR makes it more wordy, of course, but in the end
they get to the same place: ‘Everyone likes a close race, and the media are
trying really hard to portray the upcoming referendum on the UK’s membership of
the EU as one that could go either way. Polls are often used as evidence of
this.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘According to the FT, the average percentage of Leave
responses in surveys carried out since 2010 is 40%, vs 42% for Remain. More
recent polls since last September show a clearer Remain advantage – 44.0% vs
40.5% – and data collected by Bloomberg over the same period show a similar gap
– 43% vs 39.3%.’</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But don’t just look at those Leave/Remain preferences.
There’s more to analysing the figures than that:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘…this bigger lead for the Remain camp is fairly small
compared to the standard deviation on the responses (four to five percentage
points), making it impossible to point to a clear winner with any degree of
confidence.’</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">LSR clearly wrote this note before the publication yesterday
of the Ipsos MORI poll, carried out over the weekend. Not that Ipsos MORI makes
it look any better for Brexit. The poll showed the Remain campaign with an 18-point lead
over Leave.</span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje7ydalx-WL44iJAmI4iqARewj1XHhcnTbXx2tdjxcuX5QJYo6ZgSac1k63s5UXC50o6z2TBBXDYRaNfRU98TG_DExtyKChrCGvaiEYkiVzESMaJiewvgD9zZgwuImQ7pu6tVx-uYvcNRN/s1600/dm+poll+chart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje7ydalx-WL44iJAmI4iqARewj1XHhcnTbXx2tdjxcuX5QJYo6ZgSac1k63s5UXC50o6z2TBBXDYRaNfRU98TG_DExtyKChrCGvaiEYkiVzESMaJiewvgD9zZgwuImQ7pu6tVx-uYvcNRN/s320/dm+poll+chart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A fluke poll? No. The figures could in the end be every
bit as bad as that, because, as LSR continues: ‘Further analysis of the data,
however, provides more insights. In most surveys the percentage of Undecided
votes is very high – typically between 15% and 20%.’</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘With
both Remain and Leave well below 50%, it is clear that it’ll be the people who
haven’t made up their minds yet who will determine the outcome. And it’s the
analysis of the Undecided voters’ inclinations and preferences that provides
the most compelling clues that a Brexit is very unlikely.’</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is because, according to further data from a
Bloomberg tracker poll, when more people have expressed a clear Remain or Leave
preference, there has tended to be a higher percentage of those in favour of
the UK remaining part of the EU.</span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A similar pattern is evident in the data
collected by the Financial Times, though the pattern was not as clear as in
the Bloomberg data:the data show most undecideds go Remain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In other words, as in most
referendums, the status quo wins – more evidence that the Leave campaign has not yet
got it through the heads of the voters that Remain does not mean a UK-EU status
quo. But that is another issue.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course, we learned in the general election not to
rely on opinion poll data, because the figures can be remarkably inaccurate.
But other data supports the LSR conclusions.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Number Cruncher Politics website admits the volatility
in the polls, but then says that increased support for remain is down to Tory
voters swinging back to Remain:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><a href="http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/forecast-update-and-why-its-been-so-volatile-this-week.html/#more-1824">http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/05/forecast-update-and-why-its-been-so-volatile-this-week.html/#more-1824</a></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">‘The tables from the MORI poll shows a huge swing
about Conservative voters compared with last month, when Leave led 50-42 among
those that would vote Conservative in new election now. This month, Remain
leads 60-34 among Tory voters – a greater margin than the overall average.’</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In short, wipe-out for Brexit.</span></div>
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M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-5679727776543814272016-05-17T07:45:00.000-07:002016-05-17T07:47:46.464-07:00Cameron is a weasel: the only surprise is that Leave is surprised<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Another day wasted, with the Leave campaign yet again failing to make any case for Brexit which could convince undecided voters.<br /><br />Instead, the Leave side have used up today complaining about Cameron not playing fair. In particular, they have been complaining about Cameron being in a secret unfair stitch-up months ago with big business.<br /><br />The Vote Leave campaign has accused Cameron of being ‘knee deep in a conspiracy’ to keep Britain in the EU, after letters emerged indicating the Prime Minister discussed the role FTSE 100 companies could play in the Remain campaign.<br /><br />These letters were exchanged before Cameron had even completed his renegotiation deal with European leaders. Yet at that time the Prime Minister was still claiming he ‘ruled nothing out,’ leading eurosceptic MPs and others to believe he might be willing to support a campaign to leave if he won few concessions from Brussels in his negotiations.<br /><br />This is all ‘unfair,’ the Leave campaign says.<br /><br />Indeed, Nigel Farage said today that Cameron’s whole campaign has been so unfair that he wants a second referendum if the result is only a slim majority in favour of Remain.<br /><br />This kind of complaint is worse than useless, it is embarrassing.<br /><br />Anyone over the age of six who squeals, ‘He’s not playing fair!’ is absurd.<br /><br />Of course Cameron is not playing fair. Of course he has been involved in secret dealings with big business. He is a politician who intends to win, and he has form for exactly this kind of behaviour.<br /><br />I therefore have no time for Tories such as the MP Jacob Rees-Mogg who is reported today to be ‘furious’ over Cameron’s secret FTSE dealings.<br /><br />Rees-Mogg told the Bruges Group in London that Cameron’s secret Remain dealings with the big corporations while he still worked to make people believe he might support Britain leaving the EU was ‘a scandal of the highest order.’ He said it appeared Parliament had been misled by Cameron.<br /><br />Yet Rees-Mogg is a member of a party that was happy to go on backing Cameron even after he betrayed his ‘cast-iron guarantee’ to give the British people a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty.<br /><br />That betrayal was in 2009. Cameron was a weasel then; he is a weasel now. It is no good for Leave campaigners such as Rees-Mogg to act as if they have only just realised it.<br /><br />If the slippery manoeuvre in 2009 wasn’t enough, any politician of any experience would have recognised a weasel manoeuvre in Cameron’s refusal to talk straight and say he might back Leave if he failed in his negotiations.<br /><br />Instead of straight talk, all the Prime Minister would say was ‘I rule nothing out.’ It is especially amazing that Rees-Mogg, a well-educated Roman Catholic, didn’t identify that Cameron phrase as pure Jesuit.<br /><br />The Leave campaign needs to stop whining that the campaign is ‘unfair,’ because of course it is.<br /><br />However, Cameron is winning this referendum not because he is slippery, he is winning it because the official Leave campaign has described no clear, safe path out of the EU for the voters. <br /><br />In other words, Cameron is not winning this campaign. The Leave campaign is losing it by being unthinking, uninformed, and unorganised. M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-70008628454495415872016-05-15T06:49:00.000-07:002016-05-15T10:33:51.404-07:00The Protected vs the Unprotected: the new Reformation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Today the Mail on Sunday has it right, but only up to a point:<br />
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‘The final hard shape of the referendum battle now starts to emerge out of the mist. Two great issues dominate – the future of the economy, and the question of immigration.’<br />
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‘On the economy, it would be hard to deny that the Remain camp have struck the shrewdest blows and have assembled the most formidable collection of arguments and supporters.’<br />
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‘The Brexiteers may complain about outsiders telling us what to do – and this is a problem for the supporters of the EU.’<br />
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‘But the fact remains that when Barack Obama, Mark Carney and Christine Lagarde all advise against a UK departure, the combined weight of their counsel is huge.’<br />
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It is at this point the Mail goes wrong. <br />
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‘Rather than moan about their intervention,’ says the Mail, ‘the Exit camp need to find supporters of comparable quality, and they need to do so quickly.’<br />
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If the Mail really understood what is going on, they’d know there can be no equivalent to Obama, Carney and Lagarde on the Brexit side. It is like demanding of Martin Luther in 1517 that he come up with ‘supporters of comparable quality’ in his fight against Rome.<br />
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In other words, if you think this referendum battle is between two sides who are mirror images of each other, you don’t understand the fight.<br />
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This fight is between the protected – the leaders of which are precisely such people as Obama, Carney and Lagarde – and the unprotected.<br />
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I take that divide from what Peggy Noonan, now a Wall Street Journal columnist but more famous as President Reagan’s brilliant speech writer.<br />
<br />
In a column last February, she identified the divide today – the divide in American politics and in the politics of the EU – as between the protected and the unprotected.<br />
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Noonan wrote: ‘I keep thinking of how Donald Trump got to be the very likely Republican nominee. There are many answers and reasons, but my thoughts keep revolving around the idea of protection. It is a theme that has been something of a preoccupation in this space over the years, but I think I am seeing it now grow into an overall political dynamic throughout the West.’<br />
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‘There are the protected and the unprotected. The protected make public policy. The unprotected live in it. The unprotected are starting to push back, powerfully.’<br />
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‘The protected are the accomplished, the secure, the successful—those who have power or access to it. They are protected from much of the roughness of the world. More to the point, they are protected from the world they have created. Again, they make public policy and have for some time.’<br />
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‘I want to call them the elite to load the rhetorical dice, but let’s stick with the protected.’<br />
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‘They are figures in government, politics and media. They live in nice neighbourhoods, safe ones. Their families function, their kids go to good schools, they’ve got some money. All of these things tend to isolate them, or provide buffers. Some of them—in Washington it is important officials in the executive branch or on the Hill; in Brussels, significant figures in the European Union—literally have their own security details.’<br />
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‘Because they are protected they feel they can do pretty much anything, impose any reality. They’re insulated from many of the effects of their own decisions.’<br />
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Keep in mind what Noonan says and then go back to that list for whom the Mail thinks the Leave campaign should find supporters of ‘comparable quality.’ They are the leaders of the global protected class.<br />
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They want the UK to say in the EU.<br />
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The ‘unprotected’ want out.<br />
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The unprotected have no elite to speak for them – that is what makes them unprotected. Such people can only speak for themselves.<br />
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Or hope a strong voice will emerge to speak for them.<br />
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The tragedy is that no such voice has emerged. The unprotected are left with little more than the buffoonish Boris Johnson.<br />
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As I say, tragedy.</div>
M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-71625506222055284772016-05-13T05:01:00.000-07:002016-05-13T08:02:43.150-07:00George Washington: the first and greatest Brexiteer<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />I always feel uneasy when someone here in Brussels – usually one of the ‘Europe is my country” types – insists on drawing parallels between the development of the United States and the development of the EU. There are no parallels. The idea that the two are in any way the same kind of creature is grotesque.<br /><br />The Framers of the US Constitution perfected the British constitution for a federal republic. They established a federal government of strictly defined and highly limited powers, with the states and their people retaining their individual sovereignty.<br /><br />The European Project was from the first a project to construct by stealth a supranational power to destroy the sovereignty of the member states, under a government the limitation of whose powers would never be defined.<br /><br />So, no parallels.<br /><br />There are however things to be learned from the history of the United States. One of them comes today from Brian Reading, a veteran economist who has been commentating on global economics since the 1950s. Reading was the first economics editor at the Economist, and he was economic adviser to Ted Heath.<br /><br />He backs Brexit.<br /><br />Today Reading has a comment piece on the website of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions (OMFIF) Forum.<br /><br /><a href="http://omfif.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/j/2C6FA1A41B3A0FDF/2A46E65A8C04B1291A21C02EB51F5606">http://omfif.cmail2.com/t/ViewEmail/j/2C6FA1A41B3A0FDF/2A46E65A8C04B1291A21C02EB51F5606</a><br /><br />In it, Reading takes apart the ‘facts’ offered by George Osborne and the Treasury report: ‘Osborne’s claim to have presented “rigorous and objective” analysis to reach “robust” conclusions is exaggerated.’<br /><br />‘The prediction by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, of a possible recession if the UK quits is similarly faulty.’<br /><br />But we know that, it’s been covered. What caught my attention instead was Reading’s conclusion:<br /><br />‘The Treasury argues, correctly, that “openness” to trade promotes productivity, GDP and income growth.’<br /><br />‘These are the advantages Adam Smith first described in 1776, the year of the American declaration of independence. The 13 states were fully aware of the consequences for trade and capital flows from Britain. They preferred making their own laws rather than obeying those made in London.’<br /><br />‘This decision did not impair their long-term prosperity. The colonies rejected British appeasement offers. They faced severe short-term costs, including the Revolutionary war that they won.’<br /><br />‘No one today would argue that the American states would have been better off remaining UK colonies. In a few years, long after the flawed Treasury report has faded from memory, no one will claim that the UK would have been more prosperous by staying in the EU.’<br /><br />George Washington: the first, and greatest, Brexiteer.M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-23588085682956954952016-05-11T06:46:00.002-07:002016-05-11T07:27:06.734-07:00Michael Gove and Boris Johnson: dumb and dumber<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The legacy media have been so distracted today by pictures of Boris Johnson waving a Cornish pasty from his Leave campaign bus that they have overlooked the level of ignorance the former London mayor displayed this morning on Radio 4’s Today Show.<br />
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John Humphrys started an interview with Johnson by raising this question -- and well done, Humphrys, for doing so -- ‘If Britain votes to leave the European Union next month, would it follow that we would also leave the Single Market?’<br />
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Here is Johnson’s response. Remember, when listening to Johnson, as when listening to Michael Gove, best to assume the brace position: ‘The Single Market is a term of art [sic] for the vast empire of EU legislation and regulation, most of which is passed by qualified majority vote and now reaches into areas such as human rights, deportation, asylum, the rights of the child, all these are now adjudicated by the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg.’<br />
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‘So the answer is Yes, we should get out of the empire of EU law-making and what we should have instead is access to the Single Market….’<br />
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‘…What we want is to make sure we have access to the Single Market…’<br />
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[Humphrys interjects: In which case we’d have to have an agreement]<br />
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Johnson: ‘Exactly, in the way many other countries have access.’<br />
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[Humphrys: And they then have to accept the free movement of people as well]<br />
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Johnson: ‘No, they don’t.’<br />
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[Humphrys: Yes, they do.]<br />
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Johnson: ‘The United States of America, for instance, have access to the Single Market.'<br />
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[Humphrys: The United States of America does not have access to the European Single Market. It is not a member of the EEA]<br />
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Johsnon: ‘Of course it does, of course it has access…’<br />
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And on the muddle went. <br />
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Then Johnson started insisting -- pure fantasy -- that membership of the Single Market will ‘embroil’ us in ‘the creation of a fiscal structure to support the euro,’ and so on.<br />
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As exhausting as it is to those of us who actually know what the European Economic Area is – the 31-member state area that forms the Single Market, made up of the EU 28 plus three of the European Free Trade Area members Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein – and what it does, the level of Johnson’s ignorance cannot be allowed to pass.<br />
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Start with Johnson’s assertion that the Single Market ‘is the vast empire of EU legislation and regulation.’ <br />
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No, it is not.<br />
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If the UK were to leave the EU and join the EEA-EFTA countries, it could immediately drop all EU legislation and regulation that was not ‘EEA relevant,’ in the Brussels jargon. That would mean Britain would bin about 17,000 items in the acquis communautaire (the complete body of EU law, regulations, directives and the rest) and be left needed to comply with only about 5,000.<br />
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As it happens, yesterday City A.M. ran a piece by Hjörtur J Guðmundsson, an Icelandic historian and expert on international relations. He covered this point.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cityam.com/240684/the-norway-option-is-far-from-just-paying-into-the-eu-without-having-a-say">http://www.cityam.com/240684/the-norway-option-is-far-from-just-paying-into-the-eu-without-having-a-say</a><br />
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Unlike Johnson, Gudmundsson actually knows what being in the EEA and not the EU means for a country:<br />
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‘First, the EFTA/EEA countries have not adopted every EU law through the EEA Agreement. No study supports that claim. In fact, research by Iceland’s foreign ministry and the EFTA Secretariat in Brussels found the percentage to be more like 10 per cent. Moreover, EU laws don’t become active in the EFTA/EEA countries unless they’re first implemented by their domestic institutions.’<br />
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‘Second, unlike EU members such as Britain, the EFTA/EEA countries sit in their own right at global tables where international rules are set. These rules, made by bodies like the World Trade Organisation (WTO), form a large part of the EU’s legislation and often require unanimity when first agreed (giving the likes of Norway an opportunity to influence them at source). EFTA/EEA countries have the chance to give their input at EU level too and they sit in the EEA Joint Committee, which decides which EU laws are incorporated into the EEA Agreement, meaning each EFTA/EEA country can veto the adoption of individual EU laws.’<br />
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Note that point: countries in the Single Market but not in the EU have the power to veto the adoption of individual EU laws. <br />
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Gudmundsson continues: ‘It’s also important that the EEA Agreement's scope is limited to the Single Market. Many very significant sectors are excluded, like foreign affairs, judicial and home affairs, economic and monetary issues, trade agreements, taxation, customs, borders (Schengen is not part of the EEA), fisheries and agriculture. For Britain, most of these sectors are subject to EU supranational authority.’<br />
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To enlarge Gudmansson's point: despite Johnson’s assertions, EU law on human rights, deportation, asylum, the rights of the child, and the adjudication of the European Court of Justice, does not reach into EEA-EFTA countries. <br />
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And not just into these areas. The EEA-EFTA countries are not bound by the ECJ in any way at all.<br />
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As for countries outside the Single Market (that is, outside membership of the EEA) ‘having access’ to the Single Market, Johnson is wrong again. As Richard North pointed out on the EU referendum blog following Michael Gove’s equally ignorant comments about the Single Market on the Andrew Marr programme last weekend:<br />
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‘Fundamentally we are dealing with a man who doesn't even begin to know what he is talking about. The Single Market is a common regulatory area (CRA), defined by its acquis, which you must adopt in order to be part of it. If you don't adopt the rules, you cannot be part of it. This, actually, is a binary choice. You're in it, or you're not in it. Simples.’<br />
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‘The point then is that, if a nation is not inside the Single Market and wants to trade with the EU, it must negotiate a separate agreement. This will give it access to the EU Member States' markets as a single bloc. But no-one outside the Single Market gains "access" to it. It is not a geographical entity, but a legal construct.’<br />
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The last of the assertions Johnson made that was so spectacularly wrong was his assertion that the United States ‘has access’ to the Single Market.<br />
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No, it doesn’t. The USA trades with individual members of the EU in compliance with EU regulations and under 134 international agreements concluded between the US and the EU.<br />
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What this means is that trade of course takes place between the US and Germany, France, Norway and the rest, but under conditions which are far removed from those enjoyed by the UK when trading with these same states inside the Single Market.<br />
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The thousands of regulations which make up the Single Market become, for a country outside the EEA, a wall of non-tariff trade barriers.<br />
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In a recent joint study published by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the Atlantic Council and the British Embassy in Washington, an example was given of the effect of present tariff and non-tariff trade barriers on motor car exports from the US to the EU: <br />
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‘US motor vehicle exporters face EU tariffs averaging 8.0 percent, including tariffs of 10.0 percent on finished vehicles and 3.0 percent to 4.5 percent on most parts, in addition to a variety of non-tariff measures (NTMs) that further restrict access to the EU market. The estimated cost of the NTMs is the equivalent of a 25.5 percent tariff on US motor vehicle exports.’<br />
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In other words, despite Boris Johnson’s blustering that the USA ‘has access’ to the Single Market, what Johnson doesn’t say – because he clearly doesn’t know – is that for American car manufacturers to export to any EU member state they face the equivalent to a 25.5 percent tariff barrier. Members of the Single Market face no such barrier.<br />
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Were the UK to leave the EU, and also leave the Single Market, its motor car exporters would be in exactly the same position as the American exporters.<br />
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If you wonder how long it would take for this 25.5 percent hit to be negotiated away, think years. Then more years. If such a deal could be quick and easy, the American trade negotiators would have cracked it a long time ago. And they haven’t.M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4766219149563154023.post-29624191405528055442016-05-09T03:30:00.004-07:002016-05-09T04:13:54.218-07:00The British Constitution: miracles do not clusterThis morning the Times tells us that later today Boris Johnson will attack the idea that the Single Market is a force for good.<br /><br />We have to assume that whatever Johnson says will be a second step of choreographed ignorance from the official Leave campaign. It will be meant to back the line that Michael Gove gave on the Andrew Marr show yesterday.<br /><br />If you missed the Gove interview, in the midst of an argument on the Single Market that was wrong on every point of fact, Gove insisted Britain should leave the Single Market. For details of the breadth and depth of Gove’s ignorance, go as usual to Richard North’s analysis on eureferendum.com.<br /><br />But just of a taste of the official Leave campaign ignorance that was being presented as fact by the justice minister: he asserted that being a full member of the Single Market – memo to the Minister, there is no other kind of member other than a ‘full’ one – requires you to be in the single currency.<br /><br />No, it doesn’t. Simple as that. No, being a member, ‘full’ or otherwise, of the Single Market does not require a state to be in the single currency. <br /><br />With that level of misinformation being presented by a man who is supposed to be one of the leaders of the Leave campaign, the best idea is to assume the brace position in anticipation of the car crash of ignorance that Johnson will present later today.<br /><br />All of which makes me despair, or nearly so. Trade is a vital part of how the UK will live if it ever again becomes an independent state, so, yes, the arguments on trade post-Brexit have to be well-informed.<br /><br />But what is getting lost is that the essential argument is not about trade. Britain’s membership of the EU is more than a business decision. It is a decision about how the British people will be governed – by themselves under an ancient system of parliamentary democracy, or not.<br /><br />These lines from Daniel Webster, a giant of the US Senate in the mid-19th century, keep coming to mind in this debate. For ‘republic’ read ‘United Kingdom,’ and you will see the essence of what is at stake in this referendum:<br /><br />‘Hold on, my friends, to the Constitution and to the Republic for which it stands. Miracles do not cluster and what has happened once in 6,000 years, may not happen again.’M.E. Synonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16363089830476608635noreply@blogger.com20